Notes from Deutsche Bank - Equity Research paper
Chile produces nearly 5Million MTA of market pulp or 8% of the world's supply. Nearly 80% of the pulp capacity is located within 150 miles of Concepción.
Reports from the region suggest that mills will be down for 30-60 days. Aftershocks could easily push the restarts back even further. If the entire Chilean industry is out for just 2 months, this could result in a loss of 800,000/MT.
Some analysts are predicting modest price gains of only $30-40/MT (3-5% increase). On the other extreme, some contacts in the pulp brokerage community are pointing to April list price increases of as much as $80-100/MT (9-11% increase). Deutsche Bank forecast is for April hikes in the $60/MT range.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment