Wednesday, November 26, 2008

U.S. Uncoated Freesheet Downtime Spreads as Market Weakens

Notes from Pulp and Paper
Large and small producers alike are cutting production of uncoated freesheet printing & writing paper grades to match the sharp demand downturn in September and October.
U.S. shipments of uncoated freesheet fell 10.5% in October to 855,000 tons, according to preliminary data from the American Forest & Paper Assn. On top of a 5.4% drop in September, the 10-month decline moved to -6.1%. The November demand figures will not be better.

Producers have eliminated capacity to control flooding the market with unwanted tons with temporary machine shut down and some permanent shuttering of equipment.
Domtar Dryden, Ont 151,000tons
International Paper – Frankin, VA 150,00tons
-Also, IP in Ticonderoga, NY and Selma, AL 60,000 tons total
-Also, IP announce Riverdale, AL will take down time
Boise St Helen, OR. 200,000 tons
-Also, Boise will take down time in International Fall, MN
Finch Paper Glens Falls, NY is considering down time (capacity is 250,000 tons)

M-Real to Hike Prices in Early 2009

M-real plans to raise prices for coated fine paper and coated magazine paper by 8% effective in the beginning of 2009. Earlier this year, the European paper supplier increased prices for its U.S. market coated magazine papers by $60/ton and its U.K. magazine paper prices by about $80/ton.

Catalyst to Curtail Production at All Mills

Catalyst Paper Corp. said it will be curtailing production at all six of its mills during the seasonally slow Christmas period. The curtailments will vary in duration, but will begin December 19 and end in the first week of January. The recent announcement will remove an additional 21,000 tonnes of newsprint, 14,000 tonnes of specialty papers and 2,000 tonnes of pulp production from the market.

Pulp Inventory Increases

World pulp inventories rose in October to 47 days – up from 44 in September and up 19 days from 2007 levels. Compare to October 2007, shipments fell 9.5% to 3.2million tons. The operating rate fell to 83%.
China alone demanded 24% less tons (demand for October was only 306,000tons).
Obviously, as demand for paper declines, all the raw materials to produce paper also experience
a slow down in demand.

European Producers believe Prices will increase

Management of leading European paper producers all agree that prices will start to increase. This, for all grades including Newsprint, Super calendar, coated Groundwood because of massive curtailment of production, both temporary and permanent to control supply.
These producers expect to continue to shutter equipment, if demand not support supply.

Bukeye Takes Downtime for Cotton Fiber

Buckeye Technologies Inc. announced today that, due to softening of demand in the markets that use its cotton specialty fibers, Buckeye will be taking market downtime at its Americana Cotton Specialty Fibers facility in Brazil and reducing production by one shift at its Memphis Cotton Specialty Fibers facility.
This will result in the Americana facility being idled for the entire month of December and the Memphis facility operating at about two-thirds capacity going forward

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Pulp Prices Fall

Dramatic reductions in pulp pricing have occurred over last 90- days, with recent drops of $200-250/ton. This is 25-35% less than price levels in May and June. Pulp inventories remain high, mainly as a result of China slowing purchases to almost nothing.

Recent Uncoated Price Discounts

Industry reports that most producers of Uncoated Freesheet discounted prices by $10-15/ton for converting and business papers / cutsize. As outlined in this Paper News Blog, most of the producers for uncoated paper have taken market related down time, but many of the manufacturers that traditionally sell coated papers have 'turned off' the coater and flooded the market with uncoated paper.

Paper Shipments Tumble as Producers Slash Supply to Match Falling Demand

Associated Press -- Newly released figures on paper shipments confirm the sector's rapid contraction as producers accelerate capacity cuts in to retain pricing power, analysts said.
Goldman Sachs analyst Richard Skidmore, in a note to clients Sunday, said U.S. printing and writing paper shipments fell 12.7 percent in October year-over-year.
Shipments of so-called coated freesheet, a glossy paper, dropped 15.4 percent, and shipments of coated groundwood, a lower-cost grade of paper used in catalogs and advertising inserts, declined 19.4 percent.
"Responding to accelerating demand declines, producers have quickly acted to permanently close and temporarily idle capacity. Producer efforts to balance supply with demand have been impressive," Skidmore wrote.
International Paper Co. on Friday closed its pulp mill in northeastern Louisiana, terminating 550 employees. International Paper, based in Memphis, Tenn., earlier this month began what was expected to be a seven-week shutdown at its Bastrop mill. But Friday the company said the shuttering would be indefinite.
And early this month, Weyerhaeuser Co. said it was closing a Georgia mill indefinitely due to softening engineered wood product demand amid the ongoing housing downturn.
Deutsche Bank-North America analyst Mark Wilde termed such supply cuts "aggressive," though perhaps not sufficient to eliminate pricing pressure.
"The key issues will be margins," Wilde said in a research report late Friday.
Besides supplies of coated freesheet and coated groundwood, other grades of paper whose supplies are being reduced are uncoated freesheet, uncoated groundwood, containerboard, which is used to make cardboard, and market pulp, a raw material for various grades of paper.
"We forecast the next few quarters to be challenging for the industry as demand deteriorates, downtime rises and prices move lower," Skidmore said.
He expects prices for uncoated freesheet to decline through the middle of next year.

Fraser Papers Announces Temporary Shutdown of Thurso Pulp Mill

MARKET WIRE - Fraser Papers Inc. announced today that it plans to take up to 14,000 tonnes of market-related downtime at its hardwood kraft pulp mill in Thurso, Quebec. The shutdown will allow Fraser Papers to balance its pulp inventory with current customer requirements. Fraser Papers plans to close the mill December 15, 2008 and restart January 6, 2009, subject to orders.
Fraser Papers is an integrated specialty paper company that produces a broad range of specialty packaging and printing papers. The company has operations in New Brunswick, Maine, New Hampshire and Quebec.

Total Printing/Writing Paper Shipments Drop


U.S. printing and writing paper shipments overall dropped 9.1% in October from the previous month and fell 12.5% compared to October 2007, the American Forest & Paper Assn. reported. Total U.S. coated paper shipments dropped 5.0% to 750,900 tons in October from September and decreased 17.3% compared to a year earlier. Coated freesheet paper volumes declined 4.7% month-to-month and 15.4% year-over-year. Coated mechanical paper volumes were down 5.2% in October from the previous month and 19.4% lower than October 2007.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

PC Magazine Folds Monthly Print Edition

fr PC Magazine
In the latest contraction of the computing magazine category, Ziff Davis Media said it would fold flagship PC Magazine with the January issue and convert the brand to an all-digital format at PCMag.com.

All magazines are facing a tough road these days, but computing magazines had already been particularly impacted by readers’ growing preference for the Web. This year, 27-year-old PC Magazine was forced to cut its rate base to 600,000 from 700,000 and reduce frequency to 12 issues per year from about 25; its ad pages dropped 35.8 percent to 330 for the first six months of this year, per Publishers Information Bureau.

Also this year, rival monthly PC World, published by International Data Group, cut its rate base to 600,000 from 710,000, citing growing paper, postal and ink costs.

Time Spent on Top News Sites in Decline

By Jennifer Saba, MediaWeek
Following the same trend in September, the average time spent per person on newspaper Web sites declined in October year-over-year as monthly uniques soared.
The data is from Nielsen Online (owned by E&P's and Mediaweek's parent company) and tracks the average time spent per person at a site during October.
Some sites, however, made big increases.
The New York Times was up to an average of 40 minutes versus 35 minutes in October '07. Politico, which increased its monthly uniques 178 percent, managed to up the average time spent on the site from 9 minutes in October 2007 to almost 19 minutes in October 2008. The Houston Chronicle doubled the average time spent on its Web site year-over-year to 30 minutes.
Below is the average time spent per person for the month of October, ranked in the order of that site's unique visitors. This is a custom list from Nielsen Online and can fluctuate based on several factors including news cycles.

Boise Cuts Paper Production

Boise Inc. announced plans to restructure its St. Helens, Ore., paper mill that includes halting pulp production entirely and reducing annual paper output capacity by 200,000 tons. The move is expected to be complete mid-January.

Poor USA Paper Demand

The last 60 days have been nothing short of a disaster. Poorest demand for the pulp and paper industry in ages. Mark Wilde of Deutsche Bank predicted 4-5millions additional tons of paper capacity in North America will be out of system before 2009 draws to an end. Recall, he also forecasted that 3-4million tons of pulp, on a worldwide basis, will be shuttered by end of 2009 as well.
Estimated market demand for shipments so far through October YTD for 2008
Newsprint down 20.7%
Coated down 5.3%
-Note in October alone coated free down 16.3%; coated Groundwood down 20.7%
Uncoated Free down 6.3%
-Note in October alone, this segment down 10.5%
Containerboard down 3.3%
-October down 8.6%

Uncoated free sheet supply is also being reduced

From Deutsche Bank - Equity Research
Domtar recently announced that it would cease paper production at its Dryden, Ontario mill, removing 151K tpy of capacity. Earlier this summer, Domtar closed a 165K tpy mill in Port Edwards, WI. Last week, Domtar's largest competitor, International Paper, announced
plans to permanently shutter a 150K tpy machine at its Franklin, VA mill just before Thanksgiving. IP is also taking a reported 60K tons of Q4 downtime across its other uncoated mills. On Monday, the #3 producer, Boise, announced that it would shut 2 paper machines at
its St Helens, OR mill, removing 200K tpy of uncoated white paper.

With sharply slowing domestic demand, weak offshore markets, and rapid appreciation in the US$, we expect prices for virtually all paper grades to come under pressure as business slows seasonally in December. The "best case scenario" is that a disciplined approach
to supply & inventories will mitigate pricing pressure. The good news is that many key input costs are also falling. The key question in 2009 will be the interplay between probable lower prices & volumes on the one hand and lower input costs on the other hand.

Most major containerboard producers are reducing supply

From Deutsche Bank - Equity Research
International Paper (#1 producer) has idled 2 large machines with almost 700K tpy of capacity this autumn. IP is also "slowing back" production at other mills to the tune of 200K tons in Q4. With less fanfare, the #2 producer, Smurfit-Stone, has permanently shuttered a
135K tpy machine and is idling machines at 5 different mills during Q4. The #3 and #5 containerboard producers, Georgia-Pacific and PCA, are reportedly operating their mills on a "slow-back" strategy.

Pressure Continues on Paper Prices

The Paper industry continues to face challenges on prices given the slowing economy and raising US Dollar. There is also much pressure from the market on producers given falling production costs with the reduction in pulp, energy, transportation and certain chemicals.
List prices of Uncoated Free sheet are discounted $30-40/ton for rolls. International Paper, Domtar, and Boise have all announced machine closures, idling, or market downtime.
Coated Groundwood - paper used for Magazines and catalogues - continue to witness slow demand and suppliers have done well by reducing capacity to stabilize pricing. NewPage, Verso, Kruger, Domtar, and AbitibiBowater have all announced market downtime.
Shipments are down 9.5%.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

International Paper to Shutdown Machine

International Paper announced that it is permanently shutting down its No. 3 uncoated freesheet paper machine at its Franklin mill in Virginia. The closure, scheduled for November 23, will affect about 50 workers and will remove approximately 150,000 tons of uncoated freesheet paper from the market. Furthermore, the company is planning to take approximately 60,000 tons of lack of order downtime at its U.S. coated freesheet paper mills in the fourth quarter.

NYT Runs 50,000 Extra for Election Day

-By Joe Strupp, Editor and Publisher - Media Week

Demand for copies of today's historic Obama presidential election coverage has sparked two of the nation's largest dailies to gear up their presses again for more.

The New York Times is printing another 50,000 copies of today's historic paper while The Washington Post is planning a 26-page extra edition, expected to hit newsstands this afternoon.

"There has been immense demand for the paper. There are lines around the building. We are thrilled people are still interested in the print paper," said executive editor Marcus Brauchli. "We are scrambling to pull together a special edition."

He had few specifics on the extra, but said at least 150,000 copies would likely be printed.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

NewPage to Further Reduce LWC Production

NewPage Corp. announced plans to curtail lightweight coated (LWC) paper production by 40,000 tons in the fourth quarter as a result of a downturn in demand. The production curtailment is in addition to previously announced market-related downtime.

Paper Market Shipments

Notes from Deutsche Bank - Equity Research
Coated paper volumes fell more than forecasted. Coated Mechanical (LWC- Magazine Papers) fell 21.7% in October vs. October 2007 (-6.9% YTD). Coated Freesheet demand is somewhat better, but still fell 16.3% in October vs. October 2007 (-9.4% YTD). Weak demand for catalogues and magazines hurt the coated markets.

Uncoated shipments were off as well. Shipments of Uncoated Free Sheet fell 10.5% in October vs. October 2007 (6.1% YTD). Even Uncoated mechanical was weak, with shipments falling 3.1% in October vs. October 2007 (+10.6% YTD). This marks the first decline in over a year.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Magazines Announce Lay Offs

Time Inc. sent memos to employees at Fortune, Time, People and Sports Illustrated asking for volunteers to take buyout packages. The offer was part of Time Inc.’s reorganization plan announced a couple weeks ago and was limited to editorial employees at magazines that have contracts with the Newspaper Guild. The company is looking for roughly 100 volunteers from editorial, with about 40 from Sports Illustrated alone.

Meredith Publishing just reported they lay off 12 Senior Vice Presidents last week because of sluggish magazine sales and declining revenue.

Nukote introduces HP Indigo product line

from Labels and Narrow Web magazine

Nukote International has unveiled a new line of HP Indigo receptive substrates. In stock are white BOPP, clear BOPP, glossy paper and semi-gloss paper roll labelstocks. Specialty Indigo products such as synthetic paper in roll form or in cut sheets are also available.

“The release of the HP Indigo line adds to Nukote’s expansive selection of imaging products. We continue to invest in research and development to support customers as they take advantage of new opportunities,” says Steve Baiocchi, president of sales. Nukote’s Indigo product line has been certified for HP Indigo by the Rochester Institute of Technology Printing Applications Laboratory.

Nukote International, based in Rochester, NY, USA, provides a variety of products for more than 30,000 imaging devices, including ink, laser, toner, ribbons, thermal, wide format, industrial and packaging inks, specialized security coating, and extruded film applications.

Monday, November 10, 2008

Emails Grow

Not sure when the paperless office will formally be here, but the internet continues to cannibalize traditional paper demands.
Retailers and wholesalers expected to send 158 billion e-mail marketing messages in 2008 and 258 billion by 2013, according to 
Forrester Research.
Not too long ago, this was letters, direct mail, magazine advertisements and catalogues......

Uncoated Freesheet also witnessing Price Pressure

Reports in the market confirm producers of roll stock for uncoated freesheet are discounting to about $30-40/ton. Some of the production ending up in the market is from large coated manufacturers that have 'turned of the coater' and flooded the market with cheaper uncoated paper. We are beginning to also hear of discounts for large spot orders of cut size. Both Domtar (North America's largest producer) and Boise (#3) will idle equipment in an effort to stabilize supply and pricing.

Publication Papers Remain Weak in Demand

Producers of Groundwood containing papers for publications continue to take market related down time to maintain a balance because of weak demand. Magazines pages have been reduced, fewer catalogues are being mailed, and newspapers have reduced Sunday Inserts - all hurting Groundwood demand. Resulting from poor advertising pages (down 12% this year) and no relief in sight - 2009 is forecasted to be difficult for manufactures.
We have reported in past of paper producers taking down time - NewPage (Kimberly, WI); Kruger (Trois-Rivières -Québec -Canada); Domtar (Columbus, MS); AbitibiBowater (Catawba, SC). Although this will assist, we beleive manufactures will begin to 'officially' reduce pricing.

Pulp prices on the decline

Pulp prices continue to witness pressure due to demand reduction. Producer inventories have increased to 44 days (up from 30 days). Spot pricing of $500/ton for large orders of NBSK are rumored on shipments exported to China. Domtar and Canfor Pulp have reduced NBSK list to approximately $40-50/ton. We forecast today's spot pricing could become market pricing soon.

Two Newspapers Report Stable - nondeclining circulation

We continue to report on the decline of readers, and thus newspapers, in the USA. Newspapers such as the New York Times posted a 3.6% decline through September 30; Boston Globe reported a 10% drop.
However, the Wall Street Journal kept its circulation stable at 2million readers; USA Today and Chicago Sun Times also reported level sales at 2.3million and 313,174, respectively.
Most newspapers claim the internet is Cannibalizing business.

US News Magazine Becomes Monthly

US News and World Report, once one of the 'big 3 newsweeklies' (along with Newsweek and Time Magazine), announced it will now publish only just once per month. Newsmagazines have been struggling and hurt by the free availability of news and analysis on the web.
US News had averaged 1.8 million readers compare to 2.7million for Newsweek and 3.4million for Time.

Select Printers Announce Results

Quebecor World Inc. reported a net loss of US$64.2 million in the third quarter, as revenue declined to $993.6 million from $1.17 billion in the prior-year.

Valassis Communications posted a net loss of $5.2 million for the three-month period ended Sept. 30, compared to a net profit of $16.4 million in the prior-year quarter.