Current State of Paper Markets

Report outlining curent state of Paper market by - Deutsche Bank - Equity Research


* NEWSPRINT
Despite more attempts to increase prices (Catalyst was out with a $25/tonne price hike for Oct. 1) newsprint prices continue to decline. SP will have another go at it, with a $30 increase slated for Nov 1. Tempec announced plans to indefinitely idle a 100K/mton machine at Kapuskasing, ON and Kruger is indefinitely idling an 80K/mtpy machine in Newfoundland. Kruger also announced plans to curtail 25,000 tonnes of newsprint capacity in Quebec next month. These are the first signs that 2nd and 3rd tier players are willing to act in front of ABY/BOW merger.

* COATED GROUNDWOOD
The cyclical sleeper? Prices rose $40/ton in October as the LWC market remains extremely tight, with customers scrambling for volume. This increase comes after a solid price increase in August, with No. 5 40-lb offset rolls prices rising $35/ton, and a $5-10/ton increase in September. Shipment volumes rose 3.6% y/y in September. Kruger's reversed its decision to shutdown two of its Quebec paper mills for two weeks in response to increased demand, but also announced a 3rd price hike of the year on LWC. We also understand that European mills are beginning to trim export volumes to the US.

* UNCOATED FREE SHEET
Tepid US demand has slightly hindered implementation the full $60/ton price hike. However, the full increase is expected to be fully implemented in the next few months, with $40 of the $60 offset hike already passed through this month. Trade book prices were estimated to be up $60-70/ton in September. September UFS shipments dropped 5.0% y/y, but supply reductions are keeping the market inreasonable