Following up on the Coy Paper earlier releases, in August, Yueyang started up #10PM and in October #9 PM started up. Both continue to run trials and reports outline the paper looks fine. Both have a capacity of 200,000TPA each of uncoated paper. #10PM will focus on recycled business and offset papers while #9 will supply the same papers from virgin fiber. The plan is for #10PM to eventually produce papers from 100% deinked pulp (most of the raw stock coming from USA).
In 2008 China produced 79.8Million tons of paper and paperboard – an increase of nearly 13% annually since 2000. Of this production, China consumed 13.85Million uncoated printing and writing tons in 2008 and produced 14Million tons.
At 400,000TPA of new capacity, the Chinese must have America in their scope for exporting paper.
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400,000 tons of new paper production in this market????? I would say the Chinese have the USA in more than a scope. No way will they ever market this volume without USA.
If the chinese economy begins to deflate (which many on Wall Street think) monster mills like Yueyang will be in trouble. Mill Management might be forced to greatly reduce pricing to keep the machines running. The government would never let a mill like this stand ideal. Anyone have thoughts on whether the Chinese administrators will subsidize the mill and allow for cheap exports - if so - look out USA.
Recent rumor is the Yueyang paper mill will export over 10% of the #9 paper machine to the Americas and possibly Canada. This should be good quality in the coming months. The grades will be for cut size business / office papers for desk top printers as well as offset for commercial printers. I also understand the quality of product off #10 paper machine is less superior given the fiber base and will most likely not be exported to USA. This is an aggressive volume and, accordingly, some of the current domestic producers will certainly feel the displacement of tons. Especially if demand remains stable (or worse yet, declines!!)
This is a great project of China, paper industry. As we all all know, we are currently living in a computer generation but that doesn't mean that we ain't using paper anymore.
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