Deutsche Bank conference on pulp (Mark Wilde and Brian McClay)
>World demand for pulp estimated to decline 5% in 2009 (Note: 2008 and estimates for 2009 call for first decline in pulp since 1970’s)
>Decline for 2008 estimated to have been nearly 3%
>Pulp prices continue to decline; Europe new list price NBSK $605 and BEK $525 – while spot prices reported to be $500 for NBSK and $400 for Hardwood.
>Softwood may recover before hardwood given reduced supply and stabilized demand. However, no recovery for either before 1H2010.
>Many pulp mills (especially Norscan) operating below cash cost.
>Current pulp inventories are higher than normal (5.2million tons); this level, after 3milion tons of shuttered equipment.
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