North American Uncoated Market Capacity Shrinks

Producers of Uncoated Wood Free papers have curtailed over 2million tons of capacity since January 2007. We look for additional shuttering of equipment and increased paper prices during 2008. Two price increase announcements have already occurred in first 4 months of 2008. We have noted a steady decrease in demand, and 2006 to 2007 illustrated this with a 5.5% decrease. While the uncoated capacity decreased to 13million tons, the entire Printing and Writing market also witnessed a decline to 32.5million tons (3% decrease). The reduction started in the late 1990s. Today, this reduction is greatly assisted by the substitution of electronic communication and continuous increase in postal rates. Those mills that must buy fiber (pulp) because they are not integrated were the most inefficient, and therefore the first to shut down. Many mills suffer with inability to increase pricing enough to cover the advancement of costs such as fiber, chemicals, energy, labor, and shipping.