Monday, April 30, 2007

Top North American Producers of Uncoated Freesheet

Domtar 5million tons 33.7 market Share
International Paper 3.7million tons 25% Market Share
Boise Cascade 1.55million tons 10.5% Market Share
Glatfelter .5million tons 3.5% Market Share
Fraser Paper .45million tons 3% Market Share
Wausau Paper .4million tons 2.5% Market Share
Blue Ridge .3million tons 2% Market Share
Finch Pruyn .25million tons 1.5% Market Share
Cascades .15million tons 1% Market Share

Note: Paper.com markets all of these mill’s papers

Uncoated Freesheet Market in USA

From time to time, we offer a BLOG on defining a market-
The Uncoated Woodfree paper market is divided into three major product groups – reprographic (Copy papers), printing and converting (offset, envelope, forms, and tablet) and value added (text, cover and technical). The largest segment is the reprographics – 41.5% followed by offset 24%, envelope 11% forms 9% carbonless 5% tablet 2% text and cover 2.5% and technical 2%.

In the USA the commodity grades – reprographic and printing / converting – are generally produced on large paper machines and the plant produces its own pulp. The smaller, older mills that produce the value added grades usually do not produce pulp (rather they buy it in the open market) and are located in the Northeast and upper Midwest.

The market, as a whole has decreased from its peak in 1999 of nearly 15million tons to current 2006 of 12.5million tons – or a decline of 15.5% or 2.3million tons. The decrease is primarily attributed to cannibalism from electronic information replacing paper. We forecast an additional decrease this year with International Paper shuttering equipment as well as others such as Domtar continuing to rationalize production.
Although USA is now witnessing additional imported papers (rose 24% to 525,000 last year – 4% of USA capacity) with the reduction of USA capacity – we feel pricing could begin to increase during 2007.
Paper.com sells all major mill’s uncoated papers – from copy papers to text and cover.

Employment Levels for Printers on Decline

PIA/GATC Print Market Tracking reported US Printing industry lost more than 3000 jobs last year. This was a result of more than 980 plants that closed down in 2006.

Container Board Producers announce Price Increase

Packaging Corporation of America announced a $40/ton containerboard hike, effective May 15th. We would not be surprised to see other industry players to make similar announcements in the coming days. Although a $40/ton winter price
hike floundered on the back of weak box demand, global containerboard markets are very tight (and prices are rising, often
well above domestic prices) and we have received several reports in the past week that domestic box volumes are strengthening & mill backlogs are tightening. Containerboard producers are also struggling under the weight of increased raw material costs.

Mohawk Continues to Grow with Text and Cover

Since its purchase of International Papers fine papers division in 2005, Mohawk’s sales have reached $300 million in the first
quarter, nearly tripling sales from before the International Paper deal. Since 2005, Mohawk has more than doubled its sales staff from 26 to 59 people. Paper.com markets these products to companies that use Mohawk to publish their annual reports, books, catalogs, magazines, posters and letterheads.

Notes from PriceWaterhouseCoopers Meeting of Paper Industry

Global forest products sector has strong Merger and Acquisitions year in 2006; there were over 280 mergers and acquisitions (M&A) with a value of nearly US$26 billion in the global forest, paper and fiber-based packaging sector, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).

North America remained at the forefront of forest, paper and packaging M&A activity, with a two-thirds share of deal values in 2006. The second largest forest products company deal in 2006 occurred in Canada - Domtar Inc’s acquisition of Weyerhaeuser Company’s fine paper business and related assets for US$ 3.3 billion. Cascades Inc acquisition of 50% of Norampac Inc. for US$476 million and West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd purchase of 13 lumber mills from International Paper Co. for US$325 million ranked among the ten largest deals in North America.

The average deal size in 2006 increased to US$169 million from US$90 million in 2003, a good indicator of growing and recovering deal confidence over the four year period. The momentum behind deal activity looks set to
continue with opportunities still existing for consolidation as the transformation of traditional value chains in forest, paper and packaging continues.

The global forest, paper and packaging industry continued to face challenges in 2006 foreign exchange fluctuations, increased energy and transportation costs, waning demand and the impact of emerging markets on
global competition, said Craig Campbell, partner, PwC Global Forest, Paper and Packaging practice, based in Vancouver. In spite of these challenges, M&A activity has risen, with companies selling off underperforming and non-core businesses. The leading players are also seeking to extend there reach globally.

Campbell added that the forest, paper and packaging industry remains fragmented regionally and globally. This fragmentation is expected to drive more M&A activity going forward.
Highlights of recent deal activity include:
> Deals involving pulp and paper production dominate, having risen a total of over four-fold from US$3.2billion in 2003 to US$13.6billion in 2006. Forestland and forestry was the second most active sector, with deals totaling US$ 15.7billion in the last four years.
> Emerging markets are active with M&A transactions in the sector. Deals have recently taken place in Brazil, China, India, Malaysia, Mexico, and Poland and Russia.
> The top dealmaker in 2006 was International Paper, which raised US$11 billion in disposals and was behind 40% of the global deal flow, featuring in five of the ten biggest deals.
> Financial investors such as private equity investors and Timber Investment Management Organizations (TIMO) have made their mark on the sector and were involved in almost 50%, or US$12 billion, of deals in 2006.

A separate, recent PwC survey of forest, paper and packaging CEOs found that M&A activity in the global sector appears set to continue, with 27% planning a cross-border merger or acquisition. The fundamentals for deal activity in the forestry, paper and packaging industry remain strong, with a sound economic environment, low interest rates and plenty of liquidity? most notably with private equity. Almost US$9 billion of deals were reported in the first three months of this year, including Brookfield Asset Management’s acquisition of Longview Fiber and the proposed Bowater - Abitibi Consolidated deal.

North America will likely continue as a center of M&A activity in the forest products sector, where private equity is expected to remain a pivotal player. Private equity and other non-traditional investors will continue to be active dealmakers as the global sector restructures. Although unlikely to be a driver of major deal flow in the short-term, the moves towards greater
renewable energy (including biofuels) from woody biomass, will drive future deals. Co-ventures between forest and paper companies and both new and established energy players is also expected.

Fraser Decides against a Mill Purchase

Fraser Papers Inc. announced that,after discussions with its shareholders, it is withdrawing the proposal to acquire the Katahdin Paper Company from Brookfield Asset Management Inc.

Friday, April 20, 2007

Copy Paper Price Increase Will Happen

Copy Paper – also referred to as Cut Size - will increase in price by $60/ton in May. International paper, Domtar, Boise, and Georgia Pacific have all informed end users of this new price level. This will place the price of 20lbs bond copy paper, 92 brightness, to $980-1000/ton (compare to transaction pricing of $880-$900/ton at this time last year.

Pulp Producers remain Firm on Increase

NBSK pulp producers remain firm on recent announcement of increasing fiber to $810/ton. This brings the list price closer to the 11 year high of $860/ton – recorded in January 1996. SBSK ( Southern Bleached Hardwood Kraft) pulp will increase $10 to $770/ton.

FiberMark Paper attempts to reduce Employee Compensation

FiberMark, a specialty manufacturer of paper grades, owned by Greenwich, CT based SilverPoint Capital, is negotiating with its labor base to cut wages and benefits. The union workers have been working without a contract since April 1.
We understand the company has proposed wage reductions of $5-6/hour. The range of salaries had been $15.75 to $20.55 might be cut to $10.80 to $19.30.

SMART Papers secures new US$45M credit line

SMART Papers announced it has secured $45 million in new financing from Wells Fargo Foothill, part of Wells Fargo
& Company.
"This new financing provides SMART Papers with an even-stronger financial platform to expand sales, manufacturing and distribution of our products," said SMART Papers President and COO Dan Maheu. "We're pleased to have Wells Fargo Foothill as a financial partner along with our owners, Plainfield Asset Management of Greenwich, Connecticut."

Thursday, April 12, 2007

Wausau Paper Increases prices of paper

As forecasted, Wausau has joined Cranes, Mohawk and Neenah in a recent announcement to increase the price of all the Text and Cover products. This increase is effective on May 7, 2007 and it includes all the white, natural and colors.
Paper.com markets all the Wausau papers including the popular Astrobrites.

Uncoated Rally

The real issues over the next 2 quarters are supply reductions as well as potential shifts in imported paper. In Q2, International Paper will permanently cease production of an uncoated machine on its 350,000/tpy machine in Pensacola, FL. In Q3, Georgia-Pacific will permanently shutter a 110,000/tpy machine in Wauna, OR. Soon, we expect Domtar to
announce its own “post-Weyerhaeuser” capacity moves. Boise's recent conversion of a 240,000/tpy uncoated free machine at Wallula, WA to release liner will see the machine gradually migrate production out of Uncoated Papers.
Paper.com has papers from International Paper, Georgia Pacific, Boise and all the major producers.

Printers Confirm Operating Cost breakdown

PIA/GATF survey confirmed cost breakdown for Operating Expenses-
Energy/Utility 7.4%
Health Benefits 7%
Paper 4.5%
Prepress Consumables 3.75%
Wages / Salaries 3.75%
Property / Casualty Insurance 3.75

Paper Markets at a Glance

Paper Markets at a Glance
2006 year end
Uncoated Freesheet
Total shipments 11,996,000 tons
Operating Rates 93%
Imports 552,000 tons
Total Demand 12,211,000 tons
Total Printing and Writing
Total Shipments 27,316,000 tons
Operating Rates 92%
Imports 3,767,000
Total Demand 30,143,000

Uncoated Freesheet Market update this week

Most are forecasting the uncoated paper market to improve and prices to increase; however, there still remains a population that thinks differently.
Industry consolidation and closing over 1.5million tons of production since 2005 are leading to a stronger market. Limited growth in capacity (or demand) is forecasted through this year. Poor financial results, sluggish demand, over capacity, high energy, transportation and pulp costs have all plagued the uncoated market. American uncoated freesheet demand declined from its high in 2000. Demand declined 1.5% in 2006 (vs. 2005) falling to 12 million tons while imports enjoyed a 24% increase to 550,000 tons. Imports only account for 5% of USA demand, however, they continue to cannibalize domestic producer’s output. Further concerns may result from the postal increase – which will hurt direct mail campaigns.
Paper.com has all your uncoated papers - from commodity grades to very exotic handmade papers. The site now has over 35,000 items.

Domtar idles paper machine until May 21

Domtar company officials said an uncoated paper machine in its Maine facility would be shut down from April 16 until May 21 because of unfavorable market conditions.
The company already temporarily has shut down its the cut-size operation — the equipment that turns large rolls of paper into 8½-by-11-inch sheets The shutdown will affect about 100 employees. The company has about 500 workers.
The rest of the mill — those machines that produce pulp — will continue to operate.

The mill in Maine began in 1906 as part of St. Croix Paper Co. The Atlanta-based Georgia-Pacific Corp. bought it in 1963 and sold it to Domtar in 2000. The mill, with its aging paper machine, for years has had to compete with international mills that have come on line with new and faster equipment.
Last year the Montreal-based Domtar reached an agreement with Weyerhaeuser Co. to combine its fine-paper business with the Canadian papermaker in a deal that is valued at around $3.3 billion.
Domtar is the third-largest producer of uncoated, free-sheet paper in North America. It is also a leading manufacturer of business papers, commercial printing and publication papers, and technical and specialty papers.
Paper.com has all the Domtar and Weyerhaeuser paper grades, in stock and ready for immediate delivery.

47th Annual Survey Of Paper, Paperboard, And Pulp Capacity

The American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA) released its 47th Annual Survey of Paper, Paperboard, and Pulp Capacity recently in New York, NY. The Survey indicates that U.S. paper and paperboard capacity continued to edge lower in 2006, declining 1.6% to 97.7 million short tons. U.S. paper and paperboard capacity contracted 4.7% in the period from 2000 through 2006 or at an average annual rate of 0.7%. The Survey indicates that paper and paperboard capacity will decline another 0.7% in 2007 and then re-expand nearly one percent during the subsequent two years – rising 0.7% in 2008 and 0.2% in 2009.
The Survey covers U.S. industry capacity plans for the years 2006 through 2009 for all paper, paperboard, and pulp grades. Industry total capacity by grade for all U.S. mills is included in the report.

Fraser takes Down Time

Fraser Papers will temporarily shut its #6 Paper Machine which produces LWC ( used in magazines, catalogues and advertising inserts.). The machine produces 200 tons/day at its Madawaska, Maine Operation. Company management sited this decision was due to weak market conditions.
The company expects the shutdown to be two weeks in duration. Fraser Papers is an integrated specialty paper company which produces a broad range of specialty packaging and printing papers.

Thursday, April 05, 2007

Finland Produces Record Production of Paper

Finland reported a production of 14.1 million tons of paper and paperboard in 2006. Manufactures also reported a record 13 million tons of pulp was produced. These figures are 15% more than 2005.

Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Uncoated Business Papers Price Increase

International Paper has announced a $60/ton price hike on cutsize uncoated free sheet papers. The increase will take effect on May 3rd. Uncoated paper prices and demand have been rising in Europe, however, USA witnessed weaker than normal February demand. Price increases have also been announced in Asia. Permanent capacity closures by International Paper and Georgia Pacific will reduce US supply. Most Likely, other players to follow. Domtar, Boise and Georgia Pacific are the other key players in the market.
Paper.com has the widest assortment of uncoated business papers on the web - available and ready for immediate shipment.

Monday, April 02, 2007

USA Announces Tariffs on Imports from Asia

USA will impose tariffs on Coated Paper from China, Indonesia, and Korea for Counter Vailing Duties (CVD). These duties will take effect immediately. This tariff affects coated free sheet grades only. The duties are set at 10-20% but could rise higher.
The level of imports into USA was 6.2% of Coated Free Sheet consumption in 2006 and were expected to rise in 2007. This is also positive for producers of uncoated producers such as Domtar and International Paper, since some coated producers running UFS should swing back to coated.

Current tariff for respective mills are as follows.
CHINA
Gold East 20.35%
Chenming 10.90%
All others 18.16%
INDONESIA
TK and PD 21.24%
all others 21.24%
KOREA
EN Paper 0.08%
Hansol 1.76%
Keysong 0.59%
Moorim 0.04%
all others 1.76%

Harry Potter Book goes Recycle

The Children’s book publisher, Scholastic, will use recycled paper certified by the FSC in printing the seventh and final book in the Harry Potter series.
Come to Paper.com for all your recycled needs.

News from Europe Paper market

Copied off the international wire

In Europe: Demand for uncoated magazine paper is expected to ease after strong growth in 2006. Coated magazine paper demand improved in early 2007 and is expected to be moderately positive for the year. Modest demand
growth is expected for newsprint. Demand for uncoated fine paper remains good, particularly in Eastern Europe. Demand is healthy and strong order inflow is expected for coated fine paper and packaging boards. Demand for wood products is expected to be healthy in most markets. Contract negotiations for newsprint prices have been completed and prices increased by an average of 5% in Western Europe. Magazine paper prices have declined at the beginning of 2007 and may remain under pressure for non-contractual business. Further price increases are expected in uncoated fine paper, and increases are being negotiated in coated fine paper. Some moderate increases in packaging board prices are implemented. Some production curtailments are expected at Enocell Pulp Mill (part of Packaging Boards) in the second quarter of 2007 due to shortage of raw material. In wood products further product price movements are likely to reflect wood costs.

USA Market – as told through European wire
In North America: Demand for newsprint is expected to decline further. Demand for magazine paper, particularly coated magazine paper, remains weak due to seasonal reasons and underlying end-use weakness. Demand in coated fine paper is forecast to remain flat. Prices for publication papers are still declining. Coated fine paper reel prices are under pressure, but some price increases for sheet products are being negotiated.

Other Markets
In China, coated fine paper demand is expected to improve later in the spring and prices to firm up. In Latin America, modest growth in demand for coated magazine paper is anticipated, but downward price pressure is increasing. Operating cost inflation is forecast to be 2.0% to 2.5% higher in 2007 than 2006, primarily because of increased wood costs, including the impact of the Russian duties on wood.

Blue Ridge Paper's up for Sale

Blue Ridge Paper Products Inc announced that it is engaged in discussions with New Zealand-based The Rank Group regarding a potential sale. It is believed a sale of the company to The Rank Group could be positive for credit quality and assure financial stability for the mill.

Verso Paper reports 4Q06 loss of $6Million

Verso Paper Holdings LLC reported its results for the fourth quarter for business once owned by the Coated and Supercalendered Papers Division of International Paper Company, for the year ended December 31, 2006; siting challenges by on increase in costs of pulp, energy, raw materials

Highlights for the fourth quarter of 2006 include:
Revenues of $408.0 million in 2006 compared to $410.9 million during
the prior year period.
* Operating income of $21.9 million versus operating income of $11.8
million in the prior year period.
* Net loss of ($6.0) million for the quarter versus net income of
$4.7 million in the prior year period.
Revenues of $1,611.3 million in 2006 compared to $1,603.8 million
during the prior year.
* Operating income of $71.3 million versus operating income of $60.2
million for the prior year.
* Net income of $8.9 million compared to $27.6 million in 2005.
Paper.com has all the Verso grades available on a manufacturing basis.

Time Inc. on the Block? Time Warner Says 'No'

Exported from - March 29, 2007, Folio - Long-time rumors that Time Warner may sell its publishing division came to a head this week when Forbes.com reported that news of possible sale of Time Inc. sent Time Warner shares up.
But a source told Folio: Although the future of Time Inc. was unclear, Time Warner officials have recently said they plan
to remain in the publishing business. Time Warner thinks publishing is a great business to be in and plans to stay there.

Coated Free Sheet Market

Most producers have announced $50-$60/ton hikes on lower grade coated free sheet for March. Rising pulp costs and capacity reductions are both helping to firm the market. However, the biggest domestic issue is duties on Asian imports. Preliminary countervailing duties on Chinese, Indonesian and Korean imports are 18%, 21% and 2%, respectively. The next step
is a Commerce Department ruling on antidumping duties, due out on May 29th. Domestic shipments rose 10% in February ahead of possible duties on Asian imports.
Paper.com has all the major producer's coated papers - available and ready for immediate shipment.

Market Pulp

Softwood markets remain tight. Softwood inventory days of supply dropped from 27 in January to 25 in February. European producers announced $20/ton hikes in Europe for April, joining their USA counterparts, this increase has a good chance of going through. Expect hardwood markets to feel more impact from new Latin mills .

Finch - Another Paper Mill Sold

Atlas Paper Resources LLC, and other investors, to acquire Finch, Pruyn Paper mill. Atlas Holdings LLC is a holding company that operates Businesses in a number of industrial sectors, including the paper, packaging, wood products and steel industries.

Atlas Paper Resources will purchase all of the company's assets, including its manufacturing facilities in Glens Falls, N.Y., and its Adirondack forestland. Finch, Pruyn has the capacity to produce 250,000 tons per year of of premium uncoated paper for advertising materials, book publishing, and business office papers. The mill employs 850 works and has about 160,000 acres of land in the Adirondacks.
Paper.com carrys all the Finch, Pruyn products, all available and ready fo immediate shipment.

Thunder Bay Paper Mill Sold

The Cascades Paper Mill, once called Provincial Papers and owned by Abitibi was sold to a private investment company called Thunder Bay Fine Papers. The mill has been closed since early 2006 and will take @35million to start back up. The mill made 170,000 tons per year of coated book papers.

Domtar Introduces Antimicrobial Paper

Domtar announced the introduction of antimicrobial paper. The sheet is coated with a silver compound that kills, most bacteria – as well as odors, fungus, mold and mildew. This will be sold as 8 ½ x 11” office paper for both inkjet and laser desktop copiers.

Georgia Pacific to take Down Time

Last week Georgia Pacific announced it will permanently shut down the 110,000 ton/yr uncoated Freesheet PM 4 in Wauna, OR. This mill produced offset rolls.
Come to Paper.com for all your Offset uncoated Freesheet demands.

Postal Rates to increase – will hurt Paper Sales

The US Postal Service recently announced a rate increase for first class stamps by 5.1% effective May 14; and a rate hike for publication mailing such as magazines and catalogues for July 15.
The increase for publications is one more component to add to all the other recent cost increases printers have experienced. Energy, freight, fiber, chemicals, and now distribution costs. Most likely reducing paper consumption to save money.