Saturday, February 17, 2007

Paper's moment may have finally arrived.

Industry momentum has turned. Over the past 4-6 weeks, to our surprise, momentum in many paper markets has swung around. Industry backlogs and pricing are emerging from the mid-winter doldrums much
stronger than we expected. In many cases, this looks like a global phenomenon.
The biggest wildcard market is uncoated white paper. In late 2006 and beginning of this year - price slippage has raised producer’s Concerns; however, we are fairly bullish on prospects. With market pulp costs still rising and both Domtar & International Paper likely to idle capacity (potentially 5-6% of North American supply) during next few months, it is hard to envision much further pricing downside. Indeed, we think a more likely scenario is for prices to begin rebounding by
late Spring.
We think uncoated white paper markets could begin to show similar strengthening.

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