Industry momentum has turned. Over the past 4-6 weeks, to our surprise, momentum in many paper markets has swung around. Industry backlogs and pricing are emerging from the mid-winter doldrums much
stronger than we expected. In many cases, this looks like a global phenomenon.
The biggest wildcard market is uncoated white paper. In late 2006 and beginning of this year - price slippage has raised producer’s Concerns; however, we are fairly bullish on prospects. With market pulp costs still rising and both Domtar & International Paper likely to idle capacity (potentially 5-6% of North American supply) during next few months, it is hard to envision much further pricing downside. Indeed, we think a more likely scenario is for prices to begin rebounding by
late Spring.
We think uncoated white paper markets could begin to show similar strengthening.
Saturday, February 17, 2007
Shipping Rates continue to increase
Shippers such as Paper.com continue to shake our heads over recent increases in carrier fees. The big Three – UPS (Paper.com’s
exclusive shipper) Federal Express, and DHL have all announced an increase of 10% for this year. This year the USPS will also increase their rates.
Three major reason for these increases-
1-Cost of Carriers operations – primarily fuel costs
2-Competition – (or lack of) With only three major options – the industry acts like a monopoly - they all appear to increase rates in step.
I note, regional alternatives have poor tracking and diligence reveals excessive damage.
3-Demand – With the success of Internet companies such as Paper.com, this new shipping demand has kept business booming and offers limited motivation for the carriers to discount prices.
We at Paper.com constantly review shipping costs to offer the most competitive rates to our end users.
exclusive shipper) Federal Express, and DHL have all announced an increase of 10% for this year. This year the USPS will also increase their rates.
Three major reason for these increases-
1-Cost of Carriers operations – primarily fuel costs
2-Competition – (or lack of) With only three major options – the industry acts like a monopoly - they all appear to increase rates in step.
I note, regional alternatives have poor tracking and diligence reveals excessive damage.
3-Demand – With the success of Internet companies such as Paper.com, this new shipping demand has kept business booming and offers limited motivation for the carriers to discount prices.
We at Paper.com constantly review shipping costs to offer the most competitive rates to our end users.
Neenah introduces New Transfer Paper
Neenah Paper recently introduced Jet Trans Iron Man Inkjet Transfer Papers for home use. The grade will allow end user to print an image from Inkjet desktop printer onto a light cotton or synthetic and testing confirms at least 15 washes without damage to image.
Paper.com will carry this grade and support orders as little as a 500-sheet ream.
Paper.com will carry this grade and support orders as little as a 500-sheet ream.
Glatfelter expands Carbonless Line
Glatfelter introduced Xcelerator, a new line of carbonless paper for digital environments. The paper is engineered with greater bulk to increase sheet stability for improved performance. The line offers an ultra white CB ply and is 100% guaranteed. Paper.com supports this grade as well as Appleton’s NCR; Xerox; Enterprise and TST continuous; and Nekoosa’ s carbonless line. Paper.com also carries similar company’s thermal papers.
Smart Papers out of Bankruptcy and producing Paper
We have reported of Smart Paper’s status in past, and they continue to progress out of Chapter 11. Paper.com will again support this mill’s offerings. The 120,000 ton per year Hamilton, Ohio mill will manufacture 12 premium cast coasted, matte coated, and uncoated text and cover brands on three paper machines and 22 casting drums. Plainfield Capital purchased Smart and will invest an additional $500,000 on new equipment, improved color systems, and new converting and embossing equipment.
Many Large consumers of Paper go with Lighter Paper
The USA has witnessed a migration to lighter weight papers with most clients that consume large volumes. Lighter weight paper provides many advantages such as more paper (surface area) per pound, savings on postage, and transportation. The producers of commodity paper have learned to manufacture quality paper at lighter weights. The evolution of pigments has been redesigned to overcome opacity concerns and allow for increased brightness and improved run ability on press. Platy kaolins, combined with engineered carbonates have allowed publication and catalogue papers the quality required. The USPS has announced yet another increase for this year – look for further weight reductions – also, less pages and smaller sized publications.
Paper.com has over 20,000 papers – from heavy weight to the lightest manufactured.
Paper.com has over 20,000 papers – from heavy weight to the lightest manufactured.
Cenveo Acquires Printegra
Cenveo has dipped its feet in the acquisition pond again, obtaining Printegra Corp. of Peachtree City, GA, from Huron Capital Partners for an undisclosed amount of cash.
Printegra has two divisions, National Imprint and Synergy Label, with 14 manufacturing facilities across the country. The company, which specializes in short run printing, posts annual sales of roughly $90 million. It produces labels, business forms, envelopes and security documents, among other products.
“This strategic acquisition immediately establishes Cenveo as the leader in the growing market for short run and highly customized printed products,” Bob Burton, Cenveo chairman and CEO, said in a release. “The combination of these market leaders is a powerful opportunity to solidify our position as the leading competitor in the custom envelope print market.
Printegra has two divisions, National Imprint and Synergy Label, with 14 manufacturing facilities across the country. The company, which specializes in short run printing, posts annual sales of roughly $90 million. It produces labels, business forms, envelopes and security documents, among other products.
“This strategic acquisition immediately establishes Cenveo as the leader in the growing market for short run and highly customized printed products,” Bob Burton, Cenveo chairman and CEO, said in a release. “The combination of these market leaders is a powerful opportunity to solidify our position as the leading competitor in the custom envelope print market.
Vietnam is Newest Player in Paper Market
The Ministry of Industry in Vietnam is currently raising capital to build a paper mill. Current Vietnamese paper producers only make simpler kinds of paper, such as newsprint, writing paper, and packaging paper. The Ministry of industry will focus on developing forests and ensuring sufficient supplies of raw materials for producing 600,000 tones of pulp by 2010 and 1.8 million tones by 2020, as well as to reach the target of meeting 70 per cent of domestic demand by 2020.
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Market Pulp Update
Strong demand coupled with supply disruptions from mill closures assisted North American market pulp producers to advance prices to the highest levels in over a decade.
Many producers shuttered inefficient equipment and costs of manufacture increased such as energy and wood sources during 2006 creating an environment for advancing prices. The unofficial count was 11 pulp mills closed, displacing 2.3 million tons – 7 of which produced Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft (NBSK). US list price for the NBSK rose from $640 to $725 / ton by July 2006. The 4Q06 allowed for pricing to reach $770/ton for NBSK; $685 for NBNK; $708 for BEK-( Bleached Eucalyptus Kraft). Look for further increases throughout 2007.
Many producers shuttered inefficient equipment and costs of manufacture increased such as energy and wood sources during 2006 creating an environment for advancing prices. The unofficial count was 11 pulp mills closed, displacing 2.3 million tons – 7 of which produced Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft (NBSK). US list price for the NBSK rose from $640 to $725 / ton by July 2006. The 4Q06 allowed for pricing to reach $770/ton for NBSK; $685 for NBNK; $708 for BEK-( Bleached Eucalyptus Kraft). Look for further increases throughout 2007.
Observations on the paper Industry
The paper manufacturing printing and writing sector has done a good job balancing supply with demand and we believe this will continue with additional mergers and equipment curtailment as the industry rationalizes assets. The industry was hurt in 2006 with increased prices for raw materials including, fiber, chemical, energy, and transportation cost increases. The year 2007 will continue to be a challenge with the USPS increasing postage and increased competition from Asia imports. Although Europe appears busy and has reduced tonnage shipped in USA – Asia countries such as China, Indonesia, and South Korea have increased coated free sheet shipments and they are now including web grades to compliment the sheet fed grade offerings.
Some of the more meaningful 2006 events include- International Paper sold its coated division to Versa; Weyerhaeuser and Domtar merged; NewPage shut down large two paper machines.
Newsprint continues to struggle with newspaper circulation down, excess capacity, reduced web sizes, lighter basis weights, and increased imports from China. US Dailies consumed 500,000 fewer tons in 2006 versus 2005. Although Newsprint is transacting above its historic low of $445 (Aug2002) to a present level of $675 – it is down from its
High in July 2006.
Some of the more meaningful 2006 events include- International Paper sold its coated division to Versa; Weyerhaeuser and Domtar merged; NewPage shut down large two paper machines.
Newsprint continues to struggle with newspaper circulation down, excess capacity, reduced web sizes, lighter basis weights, and increased imports from China. US Dailies consumed 500,000 fewer tons in 2006 versus 2005. Although Newsprint is transacting above its historic low of $445 (Aug2002) to a present level of $675 – it is down from its
High in July 2006.
Plastics demand outpacing paper 10:1 Plastics demand outpacing paper 10:1 Plastics demand outpacing paper 10:1
From a Freedonia Report
The ubiquitous grocery bagger's question, "Paper or plastic?" is being answered more and more with a resounding "Plastic" when it comes to consumer packaged-goods makers and their choice of converted materials and containers. Plastic is expected to increase its share of the market to 53 percent (in pounds) in 2010, according to a new study by Cleveland-based researcher The Freedonia Group, Inc.
This percentage understates plastic's share because less plastic is generally required than paper in most applications due to its lighter weight. Plastic's share of the market will expand at a slower pace than in the past decade, as a number of packaging applications are now fairly mature in terms of the share controlled by plastic. Overall, volume for these two fields will climb from 23.6 billion lbs last year to 25.6 billion in 2010—about 1.7 percent annually. Growth in demand for plastic packaging is forecasted to outpace that of paper packaging by a 10:1 margin through 2010. Demand will rise 2.9 percent a year versus paper's increase of only 0.3 percent. While barely in positive territory, this contrasts with the 1.0 percent annual decline in paper-packaging demand seen in the 2000-05 period. Plastic’s advances will result from its competitive cost and performance advantages over paper, Freedonia says. Robust growth is expected for single-serve plastic milk bottles, driven by conversions from half-pint tabletop cartons in quick-serve restaurants and school lunch programs. Foodservice demand will be sparked by growing use of paperboard boxes, cartons, buckets and pails, wraps and bags. While most dairy applications for paper are mature, watch for frozen novelties to drive folding-carton growth.
The ubiquitous grocery bagger's question, "Paper or plastic?" is being answered more and more with a resounding "Plastic" when it comes to consumer packaged-goods makers and their choice of converted materials and containers. Plastic is expected to increase its share of the market to 53 percent (in pounds) in 2010, according to a new study by Cleveland-based researcher The Freedonia Group, Inc.
This percentage understates plastic's share because less plastic is generally required than paper in most applications due to its lighter weight. Plastic's share of the market will expand at a slower pace than in the past decade, as a number of packaging applications are now fairly mature in terms of the share controlled by plastic. Overall, volume for these two fields will climb from 23.6 billion lbs last year to 25.6 billion in 2010—about 1.7 percent annually. Growth in demand for plastic packaging is forecasted to outpace that of paper packaging by a 10:1 margin through 2010. Demand will rise 2.9 percent a year versus paper's increase of only 0.3 percent. While barely in positive territory, this contrasts with the 1.0 percent annual decline in paper-packaging demand seen in the 2000-05 period. Plastic’s advances will result from its competitive cost and performance advantages over paper, Freedonia says. Robust growth is expected for single-serve plastic milk bottles, driven by conversions from half-pint tabletop cartons in quick-serve restaurants and school lunch programs. Foodservice demand will be sparked by growing use of paperboard boxes, cartons, buckets and pails, wraps and bags. While most dairy applications for paper are mature, watch for frozen novelties to drive folding-carton growth.
Monday, February 12, 2007
Neenah Paper Acquirers Fox River Paper Company
Fox River agreed to be acquired by Neenah Paper. The formal announcement was made by Fox River’s CEO, Jeffery Miller, citing rising costs, decreased demand due to electronic communication, and excess capacity for their grades' demand.
Fox River produces premium printing and writing grades – all available through Paper.com. In time, the Fox River name will disappear and brands will be integrated into the Neenah paper product offerings.
Fox River produces premium printing and writing grades – all available through Paper.com. In time, the Fox River name will disappear and brands will be integrated into the Neenah paper product offerings.
more on COATED FREE SHEET
Most producers have announced $50-$60/ton hikes on lower grade coated free sheet for March. It is interesting to note that Asia Pulp & Paper "led" the increase, while major offshore producers like Lecta, Sappi, and Stora quickly followed. Rising pulp costs and capacity reductions are both helping to firm the market. NewPage recently announced the permanent closure of a machine @ Luke, MD and extensive downtime at Rumford, ME.
More on NEWSPRINT
The official newsprint price fell an additional $20/ton, after falling $15/mton over the last few months. Without more capacity
rationalization, prices could fall further. The market is sloppy and needs a fix; it may come by a "merger of equals" between Bowater and Abitibi. However, an even better catalyst would be consolidation among 2nd & 3rd tier players.
rationalization, prices could fall further. The market is sloppy and needs a fix; it may come by a "merger of equals" between Bowater and Abitibi. However, an even better catalyst would be consolidation among 2nd & 3rd tier players.
Paperboard prices may increase
Several mills want to boost prices in North America for uncoated recycled paperboard, the lightweight recycled material used for cereal and other cardboard boxes, which typically improves in sales in the spring. However, this year, inventories are still at a high 3.5 weeks of supply, making a seasonal buying pickup uncertain.
Still, Sonoco, Port Townsend, and Caraustar have proposed an increase of $40 to $50 per ton, depending on grades, effective with shipments in March. This increase is necessitated by recent and projected increases in raw material costs, led by recovered paper, as well as chemicals and starch.
Still, Sonoco, Port Townsend, and Caraustar have proposed an increase of $40 to $50 per ton, depending on grades, effective with shipments in March. This increase is necessitated by recent and projected increases in raw material costs, led by recovered paper, as well as chemicals and starch.
Sunday, February 04, 2007
Abitibi and Bowater Announce Merger
Newsprint Market Update
The official newsprint price fell an additional $20/ton, after falling $15/ton over the last few months. Without more capacity
rationalization, prices will probably fall even further. The market is weak and the proposed merger of producers such as Bowater and Abitibi will assist with adding discipline to the market and thus pricing. Consumption is down 7.9% YTD and Stora Enso has restarted its 195,000tpy newsprint mill in Port Hawkesbury (and has to "buy" a home for the tonnage). There is not much evidence of Chinese tonnage in US, but the threat alone will pressure prices.
rationalization, prices will probably fall even further. The market is weak and the proposed merger of producers such as Bowater and Abitibi will assist with adding discipline to the market and thus pricing. Consumption is down 7.9% YTD and Stora Enso has restarted its 195,000tpy newsprint mill in Port Hawkesbury (and has to "buy" a home for the tonnage). There is not much evidence of Chinese tonnage in US, but the threat alone will pressure prices.
Shipments Were Mixed for Printing Grades
The Printing and Writing paper shipments were somewhat sluggish in December, falling 1.0%. Uncoated free sheet, coated free sheet, and uncoated groundwood volumes all showed declines, while light-weight coated paper (magazine and catalogue) shipments grew modestly. For the full year 2006, the entire Printing and Writingcategory was roughly flat, rising 0.2% over 2005 volumes.
However, we expect further closures across USA in 1H07. International Paper (IP) will soon close a 350,000 tpy uncoated machine conversion to Containerboard, and Domtar is expected to move quickly after its pending merger with Weyerhaeuser’s white paper operations to shutter capacity. Together, the IP and Domtar moves should remove 5% of the North American supply base in Uncoated Freesheet papers.
However, we expect further closures across USA in 1H07. International Paper (IP) will soon close a 350,000 tpy uncoated machine conversion to Containerboard, and Domtar is expected to move quickly after its pending merger with Weyerhaeuser’s white paper operations to shutter capacity. Together, the IP and Domtar moves should remove 5% of the North American supply base in Uncoated Freesheet papers.
Uncoated Freesheet Market
Offset prices reportedly fell $20/ton in January, and copy paper prices fell $15/ton. January is a seasonally weak period for
printing and writing demand. Still, one can be reasonably encouraged by producer's efforts to take downtime and preserve
pricing power. Paper analyst such as Mark Wilde think the industry needs to cut supply by 400-500K/tons.
Come to Paper.com for all your Uncoated Paper demands. With over 20,000 items, they are sure to have all your paper requirements.
printing and writing demand. Still, one can be reasonably encouraged by producer's efforts to take downtime and preserve
pricing power. Paper analyst such as Mark Wilde think the industry needs to cut supply by 400-500K/tons.
Come to Paper.com for all your Uncoated Paper demands. With over 20,000 items, they are sure to have all your paper requirements.
Market pulp Update
Producers and customers increasingly believe January's planned $20/ton will be successful. Robust global demand, up 4.4% YTD, and tight supply is supporting higher pulp prices. Global inventories remain low at 29 days of supply. New supply is gradually ramping up in Chile. Arauco's Nueva Aldea started up last month and CMPC has reportedly started up its Santa Fe # 2 line; both lines however are running slowly with limited production. Terrace Bay Pulp restarted its 350,000/tpy NBSK line in Ontario.
Container Board Market update
A recent increase in shipments of Container Board Grades could put new life into an attempted price increase. Box volumes jumped a robust 5.5% last month. Combined, mill and box plant, inventories fell 82K tons in December. While the $40/ton January price hike initiative is dormant for now, these strong numbers could revive the initiative and help boost prices in March or April. Combine broad support, supply discipline, modestly improving demand, rising fiber costs yields a fairly decent market. The key is keeping supply and demand in balance.
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