Domtar will permanently close its mill in Gatineau, Quebec as well as the converting center in Ottawa, Ontario. Domtar also announced it will shutter two paper making machines at its Woodland mill in Baileyville, Maine and another machine in Port Edwards, Wisconsin. Total closures amount to 284,000 tons of annual capacity.
Paper.com, one on the largest online paper marketers, has all the Domtar items available for shipment.
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Office paper prices near $1000/ton
From Purchasing Magazine
Cut-size office paper prices have increased by 9% since April to an average $998/ton this month, the highest monthly price in 11 years. Its last peak was $1000, in January 1996.
Paper market data resource RISI.com says the $60/ton increase in copier paper began with shipments in early May and was implemented over time by the largest four North American producers: Domtar, International Paper, Boise Cascade and Georgia-Pacific. There still are some sales at discount, causing the marketplace average to miss the mills’ goal.
The price hike supports a recent Purchasing survey of office products buyers, more than 90% of whom said they were either "very concerned" or "somewhat concerned" about paper prices this year. And more than three-quarters of those polled reported paper price increases in the past year.
Statistics from the Pulp and Paper Products Council shows that North American uncoated Freesheet paper demand is down 5.1% through May (latest available data) at 4.99 million metric tons. So, whether any additional cut-size office paper price hikes will be attempted to offset pulp cost pressures in paper production is unclear, suggests Merrill Lynch analyst Ross Gilardi. He points out that “the U.S. paper industry continues to feel pressure from lower cost Southern hemisphere competition.”
Cut-size office paper prices have increased by 9% since April to an average $998/ton this month, the highest monthly price in 11 years. Its last peak was $1000, in January 1996.
Paper market data resource RISI.com says the $60/ton increase in copier paper began with shipments in early May and was implemented over time by the largest four North American producers: Domtar, International Paper, Boise Cascade and Georgia-Pacific. There still are some sales at discount, causing the marketplace average to miss the mills’ goal.
The price hike supports a recent Purchasing survey of office products buyers, more than 90% of whom said they were either "very concerned" or "somewhat concerned" about paper prices this year. And more than three-quarters of those polled reported paper price increases in the past year.
Statistics from the Pulp and Paper Products Council shows that North American uncoated Freesheet paper demand is down 5.1% through May (latest available data) at 4.99 million metric tons. So, whether any additional cut-size office paper price hikes will be attempted to offset pulp cost pressures in paper production is unclear, suggests Merrill Lynch analyst Ross Gilardi. He points out that “the U.S. paper industry continues to feel pressure from lower cost Southern hemisphere competition.”
Bowater Stockholders Overwhelmingly Approve Merger With Abitibi-ConsolidatedBowater Incorporated announced that its stockholders have approved the pro
Bowater Incorporated announced that its stockholders have approved the proposed merger with Abitibi-Consolidated Inc. Approximately 70% of Bowater's outstanding shares were cast in favor of the merger.
Abitibi-Consolidated Inc. also announced that its shareholders have voted in favor of the combination of Abitibi-Consolidated and Bowater Incorporated.
Abitibi-Consolidated Inc. also announced that its shareholders have voted in favor of the combination of Abitibi-Consolidated and Bowater Incorporated.
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Scrapbook Papers continue to Grow
Paper.com, a pioneer in marketing scrapbook and craft papers on the internet, continues to add to their line of papers for this important market. A recent survey was conducted by Alcone Marketing on this segment
-32million people scrapbook in the United States
-2004 confirmed over $2.55billion was spent on scrapbook materials
-At least 1person scrapbooks in 25% of North American families
-The hobby is most popular in Western States – 25-30% of all households
-Most scrapbookers are college educated women, 30-50 years old
-Most work - over half work full time
-39% has been scrapbooking for at least 5 years
-75% spends at least $25/month
-Average scrapbooker has $1853 worth of gear
-75% of the scrapbookers have a dedicated room in the house for this hobby
Also noted in research
-32.2 million mom’s were on line in 2005 – forecasted to be 36.6million by 2010
-This is 18.7% of all Internet users
Contact Paper.com customer service department for a copy of a survey that Paper.com conducted with 2500 of our end users for most popular paper’s used.
-32million people scrapbook in the United States
-2004 confirmed over $2.55billion was spent on scrapbook materials
-At least 1person scrapbooks in 25% of North American families
-The hobby is most popular in Western States – 25-30% of all households
-Most scrapbookers are college educated women, 30-50 years old
-Most work - over half work full time
-39% has been scrapbooking for at least 5 years
-75% spends at least $25/month
-Average scrapbooker has $1853 worth of gear
-75% of the scrapbookers have a dedicated room in the house for this hobby
Also noted in research
-32.2 million mom’s were on line in 2005 – forecasted to be 36.6million by 2010
-This is 18.7% of all Internet users
Contact Paper.com customer service department for a copy of a survey that Paper.com conducted with 2500 of our end users for most popular paper’s used.
Digital Printing Continues to Grow
Digital printing has enjoyed continued growth as end users are beginning to demand personalized promotions and fast turn around. Offset continues to be the most popular choice for longer runs, and does offer better reprographics. In a recent article published by Digital Publishing Solutions, Paper.com's co-founder P. Scott Vallely reported on the importance of picking the correct paper for the intended use. Offset and desktop copy papers generally are not acceptable for Digital Printers. Vallely confirmed several sheets, all marketing by www.paper.com. Some papers mentioned included Xerox’s Digital Color, NewPage’s Sterling, Finch, Prynn’s Digital Opaque, Mohawk’s Color Copy, Neenah’s Classic Crest, and SMART’s Kromekote laser. Paper.com has over 40,000 papers in stock and ready for immediate shipment.
Forest Industry Forecasted to continue to Consolidate
In 2006, the forest industry witnessed nearly 300 mergers and acquisitions worth almost $26billion. Most notable was Domtar’s acquisition of Weyerhaeuser for $3.3billion – creating the largest uncoated paper producer in North America. Other large consolidations included Cascades 50% ownership of Norampac ($476million) and West Fraser’s purchase of timberlands from International Paper for $325million. The average deal size grew from $90million in 2003 to $169millin in 2006. Industry experts believe this will continue as the industry faces both increased pressure from imports and digital communication, as well as advanced energy, transportation, fiber, and chemical costs. Thus far in 2007, $9billion worth of deals have been reported.
UNCOATED FREE SHEET UPDATE
Cut-size(business papers) prices rose $40/ton in May; and another $20 in June. Spot prices appear to be up by a slightly greater amount - merchants report continued customer resistance to hikes. Our conversations suggests a market which is balanced, but certainly not tight. While cut-size remains healthy (driven by supply cuts), substitution from Uncoated Groundwood Grades are keeping pressure on offset rolls. Paper.com has a large selection of cutsize papers available for immedaite shipment.
Market pulp Update
We believe more Canadian capacity closures will be announced . With the most recent uptick in the Canadian Dollar, it will force another round of capacity closures - we think there are at least 5-6 mills "on the bubble". Despite the highest US$ prices in over a decade for pulp, we believe that a number of Canadian mills are at/below cash cost. Wood supply issues in Europe appear to be starting to narrow the softwood/hardwood spread. Aracruz has recently announced a worldwide $20/ton hike on eucalyptus hardwood.
Paper Industry Employment Decreases
Paper mill employment fell from 17,200 in 1990 to 10,200 in 2003, according to a study done for the Maine Future Forest Economy Project.
The drop has continued in the past four years, with the work force now standing at an estimated 7,000 workers.
The drop has continued in the past four years, with the work force now standing at an estimated 7,000 workers.
North American printing and writing paper shipments fall in May
Overall printing and writing paper shipments in North America at 2.24 million tons in May were 60,000 tons or 3.1% lower than
a year ago, according to data from the Pulp and Paper Products Council. The year-to-date reduction was 189,000 tons or 1.7%.
Mill operating rates declined in three of the four major grade segments, the exception being coated paper, which gained four percentage points to 92% on a shipments-to-capacity basis.
The decline in North American printing and writing paper demand at 5.6% was more than three times the 1.4% decline in production in May. However a 16.4% drop in imports and a 24.1% rise in offshore exports offset the imbalance. Overall mill inventories at the end of May were 2,000 tons lower than at the end of April and 296,000 tons higher than a year ago.
a year ago, according to data from the Pulp and Paper Products Council. The year-to-date reduction was 189,000 tons or 1.7%.
Mill operating rates declined in three of the four major grade segments, the exception being coated paper, which gained four percentage points to 92% on a shipments-to-capacity basis.
The decline in North American printing and writing paper demand at 5.6% was more than three times the 1.4% decline in production in May. However a 16.4% drop in imports and a 24.1% rise in offshore exports offset the imbalance. Overall mill inventories at the end of May were 2,000 tons lower than at the end of April and 296,000 tons higher than a year ago.
Corrugated Medium Supply Tight
Corrugated Medium is the wavy, middle fluting material in containers. Typical basis weights are 16, 18, 22, 26, 31, 33, 36, and 40, although the standard, and most popular, is 26 pound (pounds/1000square feet) The capacity has shrunk in recent years yielding a relatively tight supply to the market. Many of the higher cost mill locations have closed. The first round of closures started in 2005, totaling 790,000 tons (total market is 10,400,000 tons). Mill locations held by International paper, Smurfit, Menasha, Groveton, and Longview have been affected. Production for 2007 is expected to raise only 1% for 2007. Prices have remained stable. Again, market tightness is a result of curtained supply side NOT demand.
Corrugated Demand is Low
Corrugated box shipments at midyear remain almost 2% lower than a year ago and, even though they appear to have improved by 0.9% in June over May, they still aren’t strong enough yet to provide any traction for the proposed $40/ton price increase on 42-lb linerboard in the East and a $50/ton increase in the West. Statistics show that U.S. containerboard production was flat in June at 2.919 million tons. But, containerboard inventories dropped below 2.4 million tons, according to Fiber Box Association and American Forest and Paper Association .
Box plant inventories reached their lowest level since June 2006 (equal to 3.2 weeks of supply) and that “may be enough to give some teeth to producers' price hike,” writes analyst Claudia Shank of J.P. Morgan Securities in New York. However, other analysts say that that box demand needs to demonstrate positive momentum before a linerboard price hike can gain traction, and demand in June wasn’t robust enough.
Box plant inventories reached their lowest level since June 2006 (equal to 3.2 weeks of supply) and that “may be enough to give some teeth to producers' price hike,” writes analyst Claudia Shank of J.P. Morgan Securities in New York. However, other analysts say that that box demand needs to demonstrate positive momentum before a linerboard price hike can gain traction, and demand in June wasn’t robust enough.
Newsprint Market Update
July prices were reportedly down another $5/ton. With the Canadian Dollar at 30+yr highs, a growing percentage of mills are below "cash cost". With pressure from inputs costs and the rising Canadian Dollar, we do not think the current prices can be sustained at current low levels. Most North American producers will support the $25/ton September price hike.
European Fine Paper deliveries fall in May
Total woodfree paper shipments decreased in April, according to the Association of European Fine Paper Manufacturers,
CEPIFINE.
Total coated woodfree deliveries fell by 1% to 783,000 tons compared tothe year-earlier period. Shipments to Europe move up by 1.2% to 607,000 tons, while exports dropped by 7.4% to 176,000 tons. On the uncoated
side, total deliveries decreased by 2.5% to 738,000 tons. Shipments to Europe slipped by 1.6% to 662,000 tons, while those outside the region fell by 10.6% to 76,000 tons.
CEPIFINE statistics include information from the 27 countries in the European Union plus Norway and Switzerland.
CEPIFINE.
Total coated woodfree deliveries fell by 1% to 783,000 tons compared tothe year-earlier period. Shipments to Europe move up by 1.2% to 607,000 tons, while exports dropped by 7.4% to 176,000 tons. On the uncoated
side, total deliveries decreased by 2.5% to 738,000 tons. Shipments to Europe slipped by 1.6% to 662,000 tons, while those outside the region fell by 10.6% to 76,000 tons.
CEPIFINE statistics include information from the 27 countries in the European Union plus Norway and Switzerland.
US label market tighten as others feel weakness continue
Positive business feedback from narrow web converter segment rose through 2006 and early 2007. “Best April on record” and “best first quarter we ever had” were among comments registered by narrow web label printers. But the economic picture in one influential part of the globe, the United States, is shifting. It is a general tightening whose main contributors are rising interest rates, lower consumer spending, declining real estate prices, and difficulty in generating future organic growth.
The label industry, according to observers, will undergo considerable contraction in North America and to a lesser degree in Europe starting later this year. This has been long predicted and is now expected near term.
Overall GDP growth and near-record low unemployment notwithstanding, the American manufacturing sector is under attack. Consumerism, in the form of demanding shoppers and even more demanding shareholders, continues to pressure retailers to pursue lower costs, better products, and additional services from their vendors, who, in turn insist on similar contributions from their own supply chains. As a result, a great deal of high volume manufacturing, along with its packaging requirements, has departed for lower cost shores, never to return. The effect on the narrow web industry has been a continued reduction in the overall market of products requiring domestically printed labels.
Today’s label printing industry is characterized by price wars, rising print standards and a tightening labor market for skilled press operators. Industry-wide, organic growth has become more and more difficult to achieve, stalling top line growth, making consolidation inevitable. This is precisely what we have been witnessing over the past several years, particularly at the large company level, where acquisitions have spearheaded the growth initiative of industry notables Multi-Color, WS Packaging, Fort Dearborn, York Label, among others. Even at the smaller and midsize company levels, the industry has seen a flurry of ownership turnover, including acquisitions by companies in related industries such as packaging equipment, folding cartons, cans, and bottles.
The label industry, according to observers, will undergo considerable contraction in North America and to a lesser degree in Europe starting later this year. This has been long predicted and is now expected near term.
Overall GDP growth and near-record low unemployment notwithstanding, the American manufacturing sector is under attack. Consumerism, in the form of demanding shoppers and even more demanding shareholders, continues to pressure retailers to pursue lower costs, better products, and additional services from their vendors, who, in turn insist on similar contributions from their own supply chains. As a result, a great deal of high volume manufacturing, along with its packaging requirements, has departed for lower cost shores, never to return. The effect on the narrow web industry has been a continued reduction in the overall market of products requiring domestically printed labels.
Today’s label printing industry is characterized by price wars, rising print standards and a tightening labor market for skilled press operators. Industry-wide, organic growth has become more and more difficult to achieve, stalling top line growth, making consolidation inevitable. This is precisely what we have been witnessing over the past several years, particularly at the large company level, where acquisitions have spearheaded the growth initiative of industry notables Multi-Color, WS Packaging, Fort Dearborn, York Label, among others. Even at the smaller and midsize company levels, the industry has seen a flurry of ownership turnover, including acquisitions by companies in related industries such as packaging equipment, folding cartons, cans, and bottles.
Go Green
Paper.com recently introduced a new website and included a section for Environmentally Friendly papers. The site has over 40,000 items, many have recycled fiber. The “Green Store” contains Environmentally Preferred Papers (EPP). Most are supplied by vendors that have third party certificates such as Forest Stewardship Council (FSC), Sustainable Forest Initiative (SFI), American Forest and Paper Association (AF&PA), and Chlorine Free Products Association (CFPA). Accordingly, the paper grades are certified to carry Post Consumer Waste (PCW).
Tuesday, July 03, 2007
Container Board Producers announce Price Increase
From - Deutsche Bank - Equity Research
Smurfit-Stone, the world's largest containerboard producer, began notifying customers on Monday of a $40/ton hike on all
containerboard grades (kraft linerboard, corrugating medium, and white-top linerboard). The hike is effective on August 1. The initiative essentially mirrors an earlier announcement by Weyerhaeuser (NA's #2 producer). The only difference is that Weyerhaeuser is proposing an extra $10/ton on the West Coast, presumably to offset higher wood costs. Weyerhaeuser and Smurfit control nearly 40% of North American containerboard supply. We expect other producers to follow.
Producers in Europe are also announcing price hikes. Over the past few business days, both Smurfit-Kappa (Europe's largest player) and PowerFlute have announced Euro50/mton (equivalent to about $61/ton) price hike on semi-chemical corrugating medium. PowerFlute's hike is scheduled for July 1, Smurfit-Kappa's for August 1.
Price hikes earlier this year fell flat in the face of weak downstream demand for corrugated boxes. The current initiative may
get more traction if the recent rebound in the ISM's manufacturing index translates to stronger industrial production and a corresponding uptick in box volumes. June's 56.0 reading is up sharply from January's 49.3 low. Historically, an ISM reading in the mid-50's is indicative of healthy box markets. Other critical variables include the state of global demand (currently, this appears healthy) and pressure from input costs. On the latter count, after some Q2 easing, global wastepaper markets are again surging. An increase in costs for old corrugated containers (OCC) and other wastepaper grades will boost variable production costs for recycled containerboard mills around the world.
Smurfit-Stone, the world's largest containerboard producer, began notifying customers on Monday of a $40/ton hike on all
containerboard grades (kraft linerboard, corrugating medium, and white-top linerboard). The hike is effective on August 1. The initiative essentially mirrors an earlier announcement by Weyerhaeuser (NA's #2 producer). The only difference is that Weyerhaeuser is proposing an extra $10/ton on the West Coast, presumably to offset higher wood costs. Weyerhaeuser and Smurfit control nearly 40% of North American containerboard supply. We expect other producers to follow.
Producers in Europe are also announcing price hikes. Over the past few business days, both Smurfit-Kappa (Europe's largest player) and PowerFlute have announced Euro50/mton (equivalent to about $61/ton) price hike on semi-chemical corrugating medium. PowerFlute's hike is scheduled for July 1, Smurfit-Kappa's for August 1.
Price hikes earlier this year fell flat in the face of weak downstream demand for corrugated boxes. The current initiative may
get more traction if the recent rebound in the ISM's manufacturing index translates to stronger industrial production and a corresponding uptick in box volumes. June's 56.0 reading is up sharply from January's 49.3 low. Historically, an ISM reading in the mid-50's is indicative of healthy box markets. Other critical variables include the state of global demand (currently, this appears healthy) and pressure from input costs. On the latter count, after some Q2 easing, global wastepaper markets are again surging. An increase in costs for old corrugated containers (OCC) and other wastepaper grades will boost variable production costs for recycled containerboard mills around the world.
Monday, July 02, 2007
USA Paper and Paperboard Capacity continue to decline
As previously reported by Paper.com, the US paper industry capacity has decreased to less than 100 million tons or 1.6% reduction from 2005. Two primary reasons sited include competition from imports and electronic substitution.
NEWSPRINT
US capacity has been on a steady decline – falling from an all time high of 7.5million tons in 2000 to 5.5milion tons in 2006 (down 26%). This trend is estimated to continue.
UNCOATED MECHANICAL (Value added newsprint)
Capacity has increased to 2.26million tons and slated to slightly increase for next several years.
COATED MECHANICAL PAPER (used for catalogues and publications)
Capacity is down to 4.7million tons. It is believed this level should remain steady for next 2 years.
COATED FREESHEET (upscale magazines and reference)
Capacity for this grade has expanded and many machines that were making mechanical coated grades have upgraded equipment to now produce Coated Free Sheet. Total capacity for 2006 was 5.31million tons.
UNCOATED FREESHEET
Capacity for this grade has trended down since 2000 high of 15.2million tons. 2006 capacity was 13.4million tons. Many of the older machines were shuttered.
Forecasts are for additional decline of 2.5% in 2007 and 1.5% in 2008.
NEWSPRINT
US capacity has been on a steady decline – falling from an all time high of 7.5million tons in 2000 to 5.5milion tons in 2006 (down 26%). This trend is estimated to continue.
UNCOATED MECHANICAL (Value added newsprint)
Capacity has increased to 2.26million tons and slated to slightly increase for next several years.
COATED MECHANICAL PAPER (used for catalogues and publications)
Capacity is down to 4.7million tons. It is believed this level should remain steady for next 2 years.
COATED FREESHEET (upscale magazines and reference)
Capacity for this grade has expanded and many machines that were making mechanical coated grades have upgraded equipment to now produce Coated Free Sheet. Total capacity for 2006 was 5.31million tons.
UNCOATED FREESHEET
Capacity for this grade has trended down since 2000 high of 15.2million tons. 2006 capacity was 13.4million tons. Many of the older machines were shuttered.
Forecasts are for additional decline of 2.5% in 2007 and 1.5% in 2008.
Coated Free Sheet End Users Feel Price Pressure
The USPS postage increases, raising energy, and now increased paper prices for Coated Free Sheet grades have challenged printers that use this grade. Hardest hit, are the West Coast printers where the vast majority of paper was from Asia – a source that recently met with a new USA Tariff. Papers from China and Indonesia were hardest hit, this made up 360,000 tons in 2006.
Paper Profits Down
Although the paper industry enjoyed positive momentum in the 4Q2006, the recent cost increases and lower demand have offset gains from recent price increases. RISI, a paper association researcher, recently reported that most paper producers were successful in raising prices; however, costs also increased for such components as fiber, chemicals, energy, transportation and labor. The survey revealed 19 companies reported positive quarterly earnings; five companies reported lower income, and, eight companies reported a net loss.
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