Wednesday, May 30, 2007

International Paper stops Paper Production at Pensacola mill

As reported in past, International Paper has finally stopped manufacturing uncoated freesheet (UFS) on PM No. 5 at its Cantonment mill in Pensacola, Fl. last week, and has begun the process of converting the 350,000 tons/yr machine
to lightweight unbleached kraft linerboard. The conversion is expected to last throughout the summer and should be
completed by the third quarter.

Monday, April 30, 2007

Top North American Producers of Uncoated Freesheet

Domtar 5million tons 33.7 market Share
International Paper 3.7million tons 25% Market Share
Boise Cascade 1.55million tons 10.5% Market Share
Glatfelter .5million tons 3.5% Market Share
Fraser Paper .45million tons 3% Market Share
Wausau Paper .4million tons 2.5% Market Share
Blue Ridge .3million tons 2% Market Share
Finch Pruyn .25million tons 1.5% Market Share
Cascades .15million tons 1% Market Share

Note: Paper.com markets all of these mill’s papers

Uncoated Freesheet Market in USA

From time to time, we offer a BLOG on defining a market-
The Uncoated Woodfree paper market is divided into three major product groups – reprographic (Copy papers), printing and converting (offset, envelope, forms, and tablet) and value added (text, cover and technical). The largest segment is the reprographics – 41.5% followed by offset 24%, envelope 11% forms 9% carbonless 5% tablet 2% text and cover 2.5% and technical 2%.

In the USA the commodity grades – reprographic and printing / converting – are generally produced on large paper machines and the plant produces its own pulp. The smaller, older mills that produce the value added grades usually do not produce pulp (rather they buy it in the open market) and are located in the Northeast and upper Midwest.

The market, as a whole has decreased from its peak in 1999 of nearly 15million tons to current 2006 of 12.5million tons – or a decline of 15.5% or 2.3million tons. The decrease is primarily attributed to cannibalism from electronic information replacing paper. We forecast an additional decrease this year with International Paper shuttering equipment as well as others such as Domtar continuing to rationalize production.
Although USA is now witnessing additional imported papers (rose 24% to 525,000 last year – 4% of USA capacity) with the reduction of USA capacity – we feel pricing could begin to increase during 2007.
Paper.com sells all major mill’s uncoated papers – from copy papers to text and cover.

Employment Levels for Printers on Decline

PIA/GATC Print Market Tracking reported US Printing industry lost more than 3000 jobs last year. This was a result of more than 980 plants that closed down in 2006.

Container Board Producers announce Price Increase

Packaging Corporation of America announced a $40/ton containerboard hike, effective May 15th. We would not be surprised to see other industry players to make similar announcements in the coming days. Although a $40/ton winter price
hike floundered on the back of weak box demand, global containerboard markets are very tight (and prices are rising, often
well above domestic prices) and we have received several reports in the past week that domestic box volumes are strengthening & mill backlogs are tightening. Containerboard producers are also struggling under the weight of increased raw material costs.

Mohawk Continues to Grow with Text and Cover

Since its purchase of International Papers fine papers division in 2005, Mohawk’s sales have reached $300 million in the first
quarter, nearly tripling sales from before the International Paper deal. Since 2005, Mohawk has more than doubled its sales staff from 26 to 59 people. Paper.com markets these products to companies that use Mohawk to publish their annual reports, books, catalogs, magazines, posters and letterheads.

Notes from PriceWaterhouseCoopers Meeting of Paper Industry

Global forest products sector has strong Merger and Acquisitions year in 2006; there were over 280 mergers and acquisitions (M&A) with a value of nearly US$26 billion in the global forest, paper and fiber-based packaging sector, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).

North America remained at the forefront of forest, paper and packaging M&A activity, with a two-thirds share of deal values in 2006. The second largest forest products company deal in 2006 occurred in Canada - Domtar Inc’s acquisition of Weyerhaeuser Company’s fine paper business and related assets for US$ 3.3 billion. Cascades Inc acquisition of 50% of Norampac Inc. for US$476 million and West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd purchase of 13 lumber mills from International Paper Co. for US$325 million ranked among the ten largest deals in North America.

The average deal size in 2006 increased to US$169 million from US$90 million in 2003, a good indicator of growing and recovering deal confidence over the four year period. The momentum behind deal activity looks set to
continue with opportunities still existing for consolidation as the transformation of traditional value chains in forest, paper and packaging continues.

The global forest, paper and packaging industry continued to face challenges in 2006 foreign exchange fluctuations, increased energy and transportation costs, waning demand and the impact of emerging markets on
global competition, said Craig Campbell, partner, PwC Global Forest, Paper and Packaging practice, based in Vancouver. In spite of these challenges, M&A activity has risen, with companies selling off underperforming and non-core businesses. The leading players are also seeking to extend there reach globally.

Campbell added that the forest, paper and packaging industry remains fragmented regionally and globally. This fragmentation is expected to drive more M&A activity going forward.
Highlights of recent deal activity include:
> Deals involving pulp and paper production dominate, having risen a total of over four-fold from US$3.2billion in 2003 to US$13.6billion in 2006. Forestland and forestry was the second most active sector, with deals totaling US$ 15.7billion in the last four years.
> Emerging markets are active with M&A transactions in the sector. Deals have recently taken place in Brazil, China, India, Malaysia, Mexico, and Poland and Russia.
> The top dealmaker in 2006 was International Paper, which raised US$11 billion in disposals and was behind 40% of the global deal flow, featuring in five of the ten biggest deals.
> Financial investors such as private equity investors and Timber Investment Management Organizations (TIMO) have made their mark on the sector and were involved in almost 50%, or US$12 billion, of deals in 2006.

A separate, recent PwC survey of forest, paper and packaging CEOs found that M&A activity in the global sector appears set to continue, with 27% planning a cross-border merger or acquisition. The fundamentals for deal activity in the forestry, paper and packaging industry remain strong, with a sound economic environment, low interest rates and plenty of liquidity? most notably with private equity. Almost US$9 billion of deals were reported in the first three months of this year, including Brookfield Asset Management’s acquisition of Longview Fiber and the proposed Bowater - Abitibi Consolidated deal.

North America will likely continue as a center of M&A activity in the forest products sector, where private equity is expected to remain a pivotal player. Private equity and other non-traditional investors will continue to be active dealmakers as the global sector restructures. Although unlikely to be a driver of major deal flow in the short-term, the moves towards greater
renewable energy (including biofuels) from woody biomass, will drive future deals. Co-ventures between forest and paper companies and both new and established energy players is also expected.

Fraser Decides against a Mill Purchase

Fraser Papers Inc. announced that,after discussions with its shareholders, it is withdrawing the proposal to acquire the Katahdin Paper Company from Brookfield Asset Management Inc.

Friday, April 20, 2007

Copy Paper Price Increase Will Happen

Copy Paper – also referred to as Cut Size - will increase in price by $60/ton in May. International paper, Domtar, Boise, and Georgia Pacific have all informed end users of this new price level. This will place the price of 20lbs bond copy paper, 92 brightness, to $980-1000/ton (compare to transaction pricing of $880-$900/ton at this time last year.

Pulp Producers remain Firm on Increase

NBSK pulp producers remain firm on recent announcement of increasing fiber to $810/ton. This brings the list price closer to the 11 year high of $860/ton – recorded in January 1996. SBSK ( Southern Bleached Hardwood Kraft) pulp will increase $10 to $770/ton.

FiberMark Paper attempts to reduce Employee Compensation

FiberMark, a specialty manufacturer of paper grades, owned by Greenwich, CT based SilverPoint Capital, is negotiating with its labor base to cut wages and benefits. The union workers have been working without a contract since April 1.
We understand the company has proposed wage reductions of $5-6/hour. The range of salaries had been $15.75 to $20.55 might be cut to $10.80 to $19.30.

SMART Papers secures new US$45M credit line

SMART Papers announced it has secured $45 million in new financing from Wells Fargo Foothill, part of Wells Fargo
& Company.
"This new financing provides SMART Papers with an even-stronger financial platform to expand sales, manufacturing and distribution of our products," said SMART Papers President and COO Dan Maheu. "We're pleased to have Wells Fargo Foothill as a financial partner along with our owners, Plainfield Asset Management of Greenwich, Connecticut."

Thursday, April 12, 2007

Wausau Paper Increases prices of paper

As forecasted, Wausau has joined Cranes, Mohawk and Neenah in a recent announcement to increase the price of all the Text and Cover products. This increase is effective on May 7, 2007 and it includes all the white, natural and colors.
Paper.com markets all the Wausau papers including the popular Astrobrites.

Uncoated Rally

The real issues over the next 2 quarters are supply reductions as well as potential shifts in imported paper. In Q2, International Paper will permanently cease production of an uncoated machine on its 350,000/tpy machine in Pensacola, FL. In Q3, Georgia-Pacific will permanently shutter a 110,000/tpy machine in Wauna, OR. Soon, we expect Domtar to
announce its own “post-Weyerhaeuser” capacity moves. Boise's recent conversion of a 240,000/tpy uncoated free machine at Wallula, WA to release liner will see the machine gradually migrate production out of Uncoated Papers.
Paper.com has papers from International Paper, Georgia Pacific, Boise and all the major producers.

Printers Confirm Operating Cost breakdown

PIA/GATF survey confirmed cost breakdown for Operating Expenses-
Energy/Utility 7.4%
Health Benefits 7%
Paper 4.5%
Prepress Consumables 3.75%
Wages / Salaries 3.75%
Property / Casualty Insurance 3.75

Paper Markets at a Glance

Paper Markets at a Glance
2006 year end
Uncoated Freesheet
Total shipments 11,996,000 tons
Operating Rates 93%
Imports 552,000 tons
Total Demand 12,211,000 tons
Total Printing and Writing
Total Shipments 27,316,000 tons
Operating Rates 92%
Imports 3,767,000
Total Demand 30,143,000

Uncoated Freesheet Market update this week

Most are forecasting the uncoated paper market to improve and prices to increase; however, there still remains a population that thinks differently.
Industry consolidation and closing over 1.5million tons of production since 2005 are leading to a stronger market. Limited growth in capacity (or demand) is forecasted through this year. Poor financial results, sluggish demand, over capacity, high energy, transportation and pulp costs have all plagued the uncoated market. American uncoated freesheet demand declined from its high in 2000. Demand declined 1.5% in 2006 (vs. 2005) falling to 12 million tons while imports enjoyed a 24% increase to 550,000 tons. Imports only account for 5% of USA demand, however, they continue to cannibalize domestic producer’s output. Further concerns may result from the postal increase – which will hurt direct mail campaigns.
Paper.com has all your uncoated papers - from commodity grades to very exotic handmade papers. The site now has over 35,000 items.

Domtar idles paper machine until May 21

Domtar company officials said an uncoated paper machine in its Maine facility would be shut down from April 16 until May 21 because of unfavorable market conditions.
The company already temporarily has shut down its the cut-size operation — the equipment that turns large rolls of paper into 8½-by-11-inch sheets The shutdown will affect about 100 employees. The company has about 500 workers.
The rest of the mill — those machines that produce pulp — will continue to operate.

The mill in Maine began in 1906 as part of St. Croix Paper Co. The Atlanta-based Georgia-Pacific Corp. bought it in 1963 and sold it to Domtar in 2000. The mill, with its aging paper machine, for years has had to compete with international mills that have come on line with new and faster equipment.
Last year the Montreal-based Domtar reached an agreement with Weyerhaeuser Co. to combine its fine-paper business with the Canadian papermaker in a deal that is valued at around $3.3 billion.
Domtar is the third-largest producer of uncoated, free-sheet paper in North America. It is also a leading manufacturer of business papers, commercial printing and publication papers, and technical and specialty papers.
Paper.com has all the Domtar and Weyerhaeuser paper grades, in stock and ready for immediate delivery.

47th Annual Survey Of Paper, Paperboard, And Pulp Capacity

The American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA) released its 47th Annual Survey of Paper, Paperboard, and Pulp Capacity recently in New York, NY. The Survey indicates that U.S. paper and paperboard capacity continued to edge lower in 2006, declining 1.6% to 97.7 million short tons. U.S. paper and paperboard capacity contracted 4.7% in the period from 2000 through 2006 or at an average annual rate of 0.7%. The Survey indicates that paper and paperboard capacity will decline another 0.7% in 2007 and then re-expand nearly one percent during the subsequent two years – rising 0.7% in 2008 and 0.2% in 2009.
The Survey covers U.S. industry capacity plans for the years 2006 through 2009 for all paper, paperboard, and pulp grades. Industry total capacity by grade for all U.S. mills is included in the report.

Fraser takes Down Time

Fraser Papers will temporarily shut its #6 Paper Machine which produces LWC ( used in magazines, catalogues and advertising inserts.). The machine produces 200 tons/day at its Madawaska, Maine Operation. Company management sited this decision was due to weak market conditions.
The company expects the shutdown to be two weeks in duration. Fraser Papers is an integrated specialty paper company which produces a broad range of specialty packaging and printing papers.