Koehler AG Seeks USA Expansion

Papierfabrik August Koehler AG of Germany is looking to expand through an acquisition of a new facility in the USA. The company currently exports Thermal Papers, Carbonless, and décor papers from its 3 mills producing 483,000 MTPA and would like to grow the North America market.

Pulp and Paper Update

A summary of Mark Wilde of Deutsche Banks recent comments-

The prices for uncoated freesheet remained flat in North America in November, with the exception of envelope papers, which rose $25-30/ton, catching up with the $35-40/ton hike on offset rolls last month. These hikes were driven by increased pulp prices, small increase in demand demand (October shipments -9.3% y/y, YTD -13.1% y/y), and slightly lower October mill inventories (-0.8% vs. October of 2008).
International Paper and Domtar recently announced 800,000TPAof permanent capacity closures by mid-2010, representing 7% of North American uncoated fresheet capacity.A recent example was International Paper just closed PM 6 — a 223,000TPA paper machine at its Franklin, Virginia mill.
Mark Wilde, senior analyst at Deutsche Bank covering the Paper & Forest Products sector, said that IP reported pick-up in demand in the direct mail and envelope converters segments.
"Outside the U.S., we understand that European producers have begun to announce price hikes for January 1. Additionally, we are becoming less concerned about the impact of tonnage from Europe, as we think the level of imports to the US will be smaller than we had anticipated."

Containerboard
 shipments for November as well as prices ($525/ton for linerboard and $500/ton for corrugating medium) remained flat. Two suppliers announced a price increase for January orders.
"When coupled with large supply reductions, expiration of black liquor credits, and a falling U.S. dollar, we expect similar domestic price hike initiatives from International Paper and Smurfit-Stone," Wilde said.
"We continue to believe Smurfit will announce 1.0-1.5 million of closures around year-end. If that occurs, it would push operating rates back into the mid-90's," he added
Market Pulp
Pulp prices rose $30/ton in November, the sixth month in a row in the U.S.A. and seventh in a row in Europe and Asia. NBSK (northern bleached softwood kraft ) rose to $830/MT. The increase was driven by a sharp rise in U.S. spot prices, low mill inventories in the U.S. and Europe, strong Chinese demand, and a weaker US Dollar.
Reports suggest that an additional hike is looming for December, Wilde said.
For China, NBSK rose to $675/ton (from $645/ton). However, anecdotal reports suggest demand in China may slow down in the coming months from inventory overhang — estimated to be around 400-500,000 m/tons.
Further, higher prices are drawing high-cost Chinese pulp mills back into production — as market prices are now well above cash-cost.
Meanwhile, other supply is also creeping back, pointed out Wilde. North American mills considering restarts include: Buchanan Forest Products' 475,000 tpy NBSK mill at Terrace Bay, Ontario; Mackenzie Pulp's 220,000 tpy NBSK mill at Mackenzie, British Columbia; and Fraser Papers' 250,000 tpy NBHK (northern bleached hardwood kraft) mill at Thurso, Quebec

Paper Prices and Shipments Continue to Decline

From a Report by Tom Stundza
Fewer customers' demanding paper have continued to cause pricing to deteriorate.
The Pulp and Paper Products Council has reported that North American printing and writing paper shipments have dropped by almost 19% through October, while year-to-date market prices tracked by Purchasing.com have dropped by about 6%.
The RISI reports that the demand slide may be over in early 2010 since overall October shipments of 2,069,000 metric tons were only 9% below the industry's shipments level in September. However, coated free-sheet shipments have dropped 25% so far this year from 2008 levels while coated mechanical paper shipments are down 24%.
The RISI review of industry data shows that overall mill inventories slipped 1,592,000 metric tons at the end of October, which is 95,000 metric tons lower than at the end of September and 198,000 metric tons lower than a year ago.

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Georgia Pacific Joins Longview Containerboard Pricing

Georgia Pacific just joined Longview with a $50/ton (East Coast) and $70/ton
(West Coast) containerboard price hike for January. This gives the hike announcement more
credibility, as Georgia Pacific is large producer. The company, owned by privately-
held Koch Industries, is similar in size to Temple-Inland and trails
only International Paper and Smurfit-Stone in the North American
containerboard market.

USA Pulp & Paper Producers Report on Gains

In the third quarter of 2009, 26 USA pulp and paper companies reported sales of slightly over $21billion, up 4.5% sequentially vs. 2Q, but down 16% vs. last year. They reported a collective $1.4 billion in net income, including $1.3 billion of alternative fuel credits, up 2% vs. 2Q. Fuel credits were received by 19 companies, lifting their incomes. Excluding fuel credits and other gains, more than half showed a drop in earnings or a marginal increase year over year. Also, production increased in third quater, up 4.6% to 6.7 million tons in September vs. May.

NAPL Forecasts 2010 US Commercial Print Volume Up 2-4%

The NAPL forecasts US commercial print volume to increase 2-4% to $76 billion in 2010, after declining 14% in 2009 to $73.5 billion and declining 4% in the previous two years. Commercial printing reported slightly higher volume in September with fewer printers reporting business as slowing, but the NAPL Printing Business Index still remains low at 36.4 in October. One third of total US printing and writing paper shipments will go to commercial printers, totaling 6.3 million tons, evenly split between coated and uncoated grades

US Postal Service Reports no 2010 Increases for Periodicals

The postmaster general, John Potter, has remarked the USPS will not increase prices for 2010 on First Class, Standard Mail, Periodicals, and single piece parcel post. This is indeed good news for magazines and cataloguers, and , therefore, paper producers.
A quick review of the past 10 years illustrates nearly a 40% increase.
1/2001 +10%
6/2002 +3%
1/2006 +5%
7/2007 + 12%
5/2008 +3%
5/2009 +3.98%
1/2010 -0-

UPS To Increase Pricing

UPS will raise its rates in 2010. The new rates will take effect Jan. 4, 2010.
Ground packages, air express and U.S. origin international shipment rate will jump by an average of 4.9%, according to the company. This is slightly less than the 5.9% announced for 2009 shipments.
The rate increase for air express and international shipments is based on a 6.9 percent increase in the base rate, less a 2 percent reduction in the air and international fuel surcharge index, the company said. The company’s management is concerned with this rate increase in that volume of shipments is down.

Wausau Announces Price Increases

The Wausau Paper Mill just announced it will increase prices for Astrobrights (+$2.00/cwt); Exact Brights (+$2.00/cwt); and Astroparche (+$5.00/cwt).

Newspaper ad sales fall again

With the depressed state of the overall economy, newspaper advertising sales fell 28 percent in the third quarter.
Ad revenue totaled $6.4 billion, according to figures from Newspaper Association of America. It was a narrower decline than the previous period.
Advertising revenue has declined year-over-year for 13 straight quarters killing some newspapers and wiping out thousands of jobs at publications across the country. In the third quarter, print advertising sales fell to $5.82 billion from $8.19 billion a year earlier. Sales of online ads dropped 17 percent from the year-earlier period to $623 million

JC Penney Transitions from Print to Web

JCPenney announced that they will discontinue the biannual "Big Book" catalog and instead will concentrate efforts on creating smaller, more targeted catalogs, online selling, and social media exposure. The current issue is JCPenney's last one.
Reasons for its demise range from the increasing costs of paper and mailing and environmental concerns about wasting paper and success on Internet sales as well as the ability to illustrate products more dramatically.

Big book catalogs have become less relevant as customers have embraced shopping online, (Note Sears stopped producing their big book in 1993 – after 106 years)

Business Publications Fair Well in Down Economy

Mediamark Research & Intelligence’s fall magazine audience report shows that six business titles—Forbes, Fortune, Inc., Smart Money, The Wall Street Journal and The Economist—all enjoyed an increases in total audience and readership when compared to 2008. The thought is consumers are seeking help to navigate the current recession and are turning to business titles.
The Journal reported its audience grow 11.6%, to 3.4 million; Forbes’ grew 11.5% to more than 6 million; Fortune’s rose by 9%, to 4.1 million; and The Economist’s audience grew 6%, to 2.8 million.
However, the bad news for these publications was that although readership was up, advertising pages were down as are total pages!
Another reason for coated papers to remain depressed with respect to demand.

Paper Markets

The accumulated effect is all paper volume continues to be depressed, although month over month shipments and comparative figures versus 2008 appear to be declining at a decreasing rate - maybe the 'bleeding' has slowed? End user demand for coated papers appears to be stable for November and estimates for December appear stable as well. Coated Free Sheet was down 7% in October (vs October 2008) and down 23.1% for the year through October; Publication coated was down 4.2% in October (24.9% for 2009) and Uncoated WoodFree down 10.3% for October (13.6% for 2009).

Europe Seeing Pulp Prices Rise

Pulp inventories are at the lowest levels in over 10 years throughout Europe, estimated to be 750,000 tons, down 8.5% in October vs. September, and down 51% vs. 2008. As a result, price increases are happening worldwide, with NBSK pulp at $800/MT in Europe and SBSK at $760/MT. China’s increased in demand for pulp is effecting all markets.

Pulp Market Remains Strong

Pulp prices are up, inventory is down, much equipment is still ideal,and Chinese demand continues to be strong .... all components yielding a seller's market and causing most buyers to forecast continued pricing pressure. The USA level for NBSK is $830/MT. Coy Paper continues to monitor for shuttered equipment to come back on line - once this occurs, pulp should prove to be more available.

Will Web Browsers Pay for online Information?

Excerpts from Forrest Research Study

New research from Forrester has found that while a minority of consumers is willing to pay for online content, not all pay models are considered equal.

The findings are relevant today when just about every print publisher is hunting for ways to offset declines in ad revenue by shifting their revenue burden to readers who are used to a world of free online content.

While 80 percent of consumers said they would not pay for access to online content if the publisher erects a pay wall, equal amounts—8 percent—said they preferred an online subscription and multichannel subscription. Only 3 percent said they’d prefer micro payments.

That suggests publishers should keep offering free, ad-supported products to the vast majority who won’t pay, while giving those who will pay a choice of payment methods for access to premium products, says the Nov. 10 report entitled "Publishers Need Multichannel Subscription Models."

Favorites were outlined as follows
37% Web site
14% portable devices like mobile phones
11%, laptops and netbooks
10 % print publication via an emailed PDF.
3 % e-readers like the Kindle
Notably, fully 44 percent said they preferred none of those options.

Who will pay for online content? The study found that people who are college-educated, technology optimists and higher earners are more likely to pay for online newspapers. Age was barely a factor in willingness to pay.

Age was a bigger factor among those who are willing to pay for online magazines. That group also is more likely to be college-educated and favoring technology. Income is barely a factor among this group, though.

Paper Companies Asking for Bigger Trucks

Another paper producer, AbitibiBowater, has joined International Paper and others in a request to allow the Federal Government to allow larger trucks on USA highways. The bill being reviewed is called the Safe and Efficient Transportation Act, a bill that would allow trucks outfitted with an extra axle to carry more weight on interstates.
In AbitibiBowater's case, just for its one mill in Calhoun, TN, it would eliminate 58 trucks per week and save $3 to $3.5million each year. The bill would also reduce the amount of trucks and, therefore, pollutants emitted.

Kraft Linerboard Price Increase

Longivew Fiber, a smaller producer (#12 at 600,000TPA), just announced a $50/ton price increase for shipments after January 1 on kraft linerboard and corrugating medium. The industry requires International Paper and Smurfit-Stone to follow for this new price level to occur. The mills have been disparate for a price increase because fiber costs are up and the black liquor credit will be gone. The challenge is soft demand - October box data show continued weak volumes.
Shipments were down 5.8%, although inventory down as well.

More Newspapers Consider the Web

A recent American Press Institute survey found that 58% of newspaper respondents are considering initiating paid access for currently open/free news and information online, and nearly 25% expect to implement a paid strategy in the next six months. This is a big change, considering that 90 % of the responding newspapers currently do not charge for content, and only 3% currently have a paid-only site.
But in Publishers Need Multichannel Subscription Models Forrester finds that “most consumers (80%) say they wouldn’t bother to access newspaper and magazine content online if it were no longer free (no surprise), and the rest are split about how they’d like to pay for content.

AbitibiBowater decides NOT to curtian Equipment

AbitibiBowater will delay curtailment of newsprint and uncoated mechanical paper production in three facilities, adding 60,000TPA through year-end. Management reported on improved demand.
-Clermont, QC, the 125,000TPA newsprint PM #4 will operate through December, instead of being idled Oct. 31st.
-Fort Frances, ON, the 70,000TPA uncoated mechanical (SC-B paper)PM #6 will run an added 4-6 weeks.
-Liverpool, NS, the 250,000TPA Bowater Mersey newsprint mill will run at full capacity through 2009, instead of at 50% capacity.

Glossy Catalogue Pages Still Sell Products

Over 17billion catalogs were mailed to American households last year, 56 for every American. This means the average catalog retailer sent 21 million copies, one every 26 days. Although the percentage of resulting sales keeps declining, currently 1.3%, catalogs are still the largest revenue generator for direct marketers, and the catalogue is beginning to drive significant traffic and sales to the website. Most catalogues are printed on 'glossy' paper with full color photographs of products and plenty of text.
Although most of the paper for these holiday catalogues has already shipped, the paper market is still depressed. Unfortunately, the first quarter has never been a good period for coated shipments - so not much hope in sight for a near term turn around!

Catalyst Mill in Elk Falls may Never Open

The Catalyst Paper Mill on the Campbell River in Elk Falls, Canada may never reopen as a result of the current economic challenges and a trend to fewer people reading newspapers. The Western Canada plant had employed over 1000 workers and produced 700 tons of newsprint every day for newspapers. The mill management sited online news had severely eroded print media’s readership and cheap paper now being imported from China. The demand for newsprint is down and many mills have become shuttered.

China Reports on Pulp and Paper

China imported almost 12million metric tons of pulp so far this year, up 42% vs. last year. Paper and paperboard imports decreased 11% to 2.72 million tons. In October, pulp imports dropped 21% to 1.07 million metric tons, and paper imports were down 13% to 270,000 tons. (Source: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China)

Hearst looks to the Web as an Ally

In an effort to boost subscriptions (especially when 1H2009 newsstand sales are down nearly 12.5%) Hearst Magazines is looking to the web. They forecast that as much as half the subscriptions in 2010 might come from the web.
The publisher’s digital group reported that advertising revenue from their sites is estimated to grow 20% for 2009.

Conde Nast Advertising Pages Down

Conde Nast has made several cost cutting initiatives during 2009, including shedding staff and publications. This was mainly a result of advertising revenue declining by nearly a third since last year - losing a total of 8,359 pages across all publications.
Recall, Coy Paper reported the closure of Gourmet, Modern Bridge, Elegant Bridge, and Cookie. The worst hit of the surviving magazines includes Architectural Digest – down almost 50%; “W” down 46%; Traveler down 41%. On the brighter side, Glamour increased over 6.5%.

Meredith Publishing appears to be doing the best because of its mass-market advertisers. Note, Conde Nast appeals mainly to luxury advertisers.

As reported in an earlier Coy Paper release, 3Q2009 advertising pages fell an average of 27.3%.

Some Thoughts for 2010 on Paper

Given the massive downtime in all paper markets with nearly every mill participating in machine closures, demand might just be matching supply in the very near term. Paper has been readily available; prices are depressed, and, suffice it to say, it has truly been a ‘buyers market’. However, if the federal stimulus package takes hold and curtailed supply allow operating rates to go back into the mid 90s, the producers of paper could once again control pricing. Clearly, raw materials such as pulp and energy have increased in price; most likely the ‘black liquor ‘ credit will end December 31, 2009…. a current ‘life support’. We think 2010 could be snug – and suppliers will advance pricing throughout the year. The Coy Paper team strongly endorses buyers should begin to negotiate 2010 programs now.

No More Metropolitan Home Magazine for Hachette

Hachette Filipacchi Media reported the closure of Metropolitan Home after the December issue. Elle Décor will now be the only shelter publication for this publisher. Many similar magazines have been closed because of the housing market collapse and economic downturn including Meredith’s Country Home, Time Inc.’s Cottage Living and Condé Nast’s Domino.

Metropolitan Home is the second shelter title Hachette has folded in the current downturn after Home, which closed in October 2008.

Coated Paper Companies Waiting on the Asia Decision on Dumping

The preliminary determination from the Department of Commerce should be out during this month, November 2009. Recall, we reported on New Page and other coated paper producers requesting that the US Government review the possibility that China and Indonesia governments were subsidizing paper mills and allowed for ‘dumping’ paper into the USA at below cash cost to produce. This includes coated paper over 80GE brightness.
The total imports of coated papers had increased from 131,687 tons in the first 6 months of 2008, 185,422 in the first six months of 2009 – an increase of 40%. During this same period USA domestic producers estimated their shipments were down 38%.
China and Indonesia combined are estimated to have a 30% market share here in the USA.

Go Green and Save

Although paper produced from post consumer recycled fibers may cost more than virgin paper, there are still many green initiatives that can save money if you can not afford this grade. Note, the paper industry’s objective by 2012 is to provide 60% of paper produced from recycled fiber (compare to Glass – 24% recycled; Plastics 7% paper is among the best at recycling).

-While it is true, paper manufactured from ‘post consumer waste’ is more expensive,; however, in many cases paper with recycled pulp (pre-consumer) may cost the same.
-Work with your printer to reduce paper wasted on make ready, bindery, and trials
-Reduce the amount of ‘free office copies’
-Confirm you have the correct roll or sheet size that allows for the least amount of waste; also, review your print layout for maximum coverage of sheet
-Reduce the basis weight of both the cover and body stock (switching from 80lb to 70lb yields 12.5% less paper – save even more if you mail)
-Ship by rail instead of truck
-If you are purchasing a recycled paper, now is the time to negotiate long term pricing. Paper is at an all time low today and therefore is a good time to establish benchmark pricing. (Note: Insisting on firm pricing with no increase most likely is not prudent !)

Some Advertising Performance Statistics

The Audit Bureau of Circulations reported on 1H2009 advertising and we share a few

BusinessWeek
Total Circulation (09/08/%change) 921,423…….925,225….-0.4%
Single Copy (09/08/%change) 27,953….29,917….-6.5%

Forbes
Total Circulation (09/08/%change) 913,655….926,899…-1.4%
Single Copy (09/08/%change) 27,172….32,096….-15.3%

Time
Total Circulation (09/08/%change) 3.27M….3.29M….-0.06%
Single Copy (09/08/%change) 100,382….95,950….+4.6%

Newsweek
Total Circulation (09/08/%change) 2.64M….2.65M….-0.03
Single Copy (09/08/%change) 64,866….82,756….-21.6%

Myllykoski Sells Paper Mill

Myllykoski has agreed to sell its Alsip Mill in Illinois to the Watermill Group. The Alsip mill will be renamed FutureMark Paper Company, claiming to be the only US facility able to produce 100% recycled coated paper for magazines and catalogs. The mill can also produce a premium #4 grade and food label product that is recycled. Total production of coated publication paper is 135,000TPA.

One Newspaper Decides to Increase Costs!

The San Francisco Chronicle will become the first daily newspaper to switch from newsprint to a glossy publication paper. The glossy paper will be used on the front page and on the first page of most sections, along with select inside pages. The objective is to secure more high end advertisers (and their scarce dollars).

Finland Reports Reduced Paper Shipments

Paper shipments in Finland are down 17% versus the 3Q08 at 2.8million tons. Magazine papers were down 25% and printing and writing grades declined 10%.

Raw Material for Pulp becomes More Expensive

Due to poor new construction in both the USA and Canada, residual wood chips historically allocated to the paper industry for pulp have also declined. Lumber production in Canada is down 50% over the last 3 years, thus creating a true lack of chips and forcing pulp mills to consume more expensive 'round wood'. The Wood Resources Group estimates that fiber costs in Canada for pulp is currently 70% higher than for the USA producers.

Bloomberg Reviewing a 'paid for' Web Site for BusinessWeek

The new owner of BusinessWeek, Bloomberg, continues to be confident that printed magazines will survive and accordingly, announced they produce a BusinessWeek that is bigger, glossier and more international. At the same time, the new owner reported they are exploring a strategy to charge for content on their own Web site.
Bloomberg plans to keep most of its content free while on its web site, and in time, create deep, vertical content areas that paying users could access for roughly $100 a year.

US House Reviewing Paper Producers' Tax Credits

U.S. House of Representatives are trying to raise more money for the nation's health care by keeping Weyerhaeuser, Temple-Inland. and other manufacturers of pulp and paper from claiming up to $24 billion in tax credits.
The proposal would bar the companies from using an Internal Revenue Service ruling made public last month to claim a $1.01/gallon tax credit for producing biofuel from so-called black liquor, a wood byproduct from pulp making.
I am sure the paper industry will fight this. In many cases, it is the tax credit that creates the difference between some producers surviving or closing their doors and letting employees go.

Quick Update on a Few Markets

Market Pulp producers have started to announce yet another price increase. The new pricing is slated for November shipments, but will most likely not be implemented until December. The $30/mt pop will bring NBSK to $830/mt in North America ($700/mt for BEK).

Transaction prices continue to climb for Uncoated Free sheet, although cut size / business papers remains somewhat flat at $1010-1060/t; 50lb rolls are now $845-865/ton. Envelope papers also up $40/ton

Containerboard pricing remains flat, but with pulp and other raw material costs increases, the producers must do something. There has been equipment curtailment, which will assist the mill's efforts to increase pricing.

Verso Paper Recieves Federal Stimulus Funding

Verso Paper Corp. was awarded $9.3 million in federal funding through the Department of Energy from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act for infrastructure improvements at its plants in Maine and Minnesota. The company will install waste energy recovery equipment at its plants in Jay and Bucksport, Maine, and one in Sartell, Minn., as part of 12 waste energy recovery projects.

Printer's September Sales Down

September is generally the first of commercial printing’s three biggest months; however, printing shipments dropped 11% to $7.5 billion vs. last year, the lowest level in Sept. since 1994.

No New Sustainability Efforts Seen

Notes for a Robert Half Survey-
New survey of most USA businesses indicate few are planning to introduce new eco-friendly programs - especially if it costs money. The majority of companies are quick to add that they have already included many 'green initiatives' and feel they are doing their part. The survey concluded by stating that end users are not willing to pay more for an environmentally friendly product (although in many cases it DOES cost more to produce).

December Advertising Magazine Pages Looking Up

Revenue from advertisements in magazines has been a real challenge in 2009, but several publishers are reporting good numbers for December issues.
-Time Inc.’s titles, Real Simple, Cooking Light, and Southern Living will run significantly more ad pages vs. last year.
-Conde Nast’s Glamour is up 5%, with Wired posting much smaller declines and many advertisers returning.
-Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia’s November issue was down less than 5%, and their December issue has a triple cover with inside cover ads.
-Hearst’s Cosmopolitan, Country Living, Good Housekeeping, Marie Claire and O are all posting bigger Dec. issues. Smaller declines are an improvement this year, when advertising pages fell 27% Jan-Sept 2009.

Paper Maker Says Demand Up For Recycled Paper

Like so many other paper producers, Longview Fiber Paper and Packaging Inc.had to let employees go due to poor sales. But recently, the company introduced FibreGreen, which is made entirely with recycled paper and is used for grocery bags and fast-food sacks. The company’s sales are now doing fine!
Longview Fiber obtains 40 percent of the material used to make FibreGreen from paper recycled by consumers. The mill’s challenge initially was 100% recycled paper is often relatively thin and weak, but Longview developed technology to maintain quality. Most of the 60% balance comes from paper products rejected by the mill.
A 100% recycled product such as FibreGreen is the type of product that customers are demanding. A couple of success stories so far include Whole Foods Market becaming the first grocery retailer nationwide to switch to 100 percent recycled bags. Starbucks is pushing to increase its recycled packaging, and so is the nation's largest retailer, Wal-Mart..
FibreGreen is manufactured on the company's No. 12 paper machine, which produces about 400 tons of paper per day. The 100 percent recycled paper was about one-fifth of the machine's September output.

BusinessWeek Quotes P. Scott Vallely on Paper Industry

As quoted in the October 9, 2009 BusinessWeek article called Kill a Newspaper, Save a Tree? Not Quite
The article reported on the challenges that the paper industry is experiencing – equipment shutdowns might save a tree or two – but its killing employment.
Many of AbitibiBowater's rivals "are losing money or breaking even," and have had to shutter operations temporarily, if not permanently, says P. Scott Vallely, CEO of Coy Paper, a specialty-paper distributor in New Canaan, Conn. "They're surviving by issuing more bonds and taking on more debt, which isn't sustainable."

Kohl’s the Boosts Mailings and Digital Ads for Holiday Season

In an attempt to gain share of limited pockets for the consumer, Kohl’s will launch their holiday campaigns right after Halloween, earlier than usual. They will increase spending on digital ads by 25% and will increase customized mailings, i.e. jewelry, general gift guide, men’s holiday gift guide based on past purchase behavior. If competitors follow, the stronger media presence will assist the paper industry with increased paper demanded as a result of the additional mailings.

iTunes now for the Magazine Industry

Maggwire.com has confirmed a model that allows magazine publishers to monetize online content. Maggwire will let readers browse magazine articles—currently almost 10,000 per week, including Time, PCWorld, Vogue and Yachting, among others—free of charge. But , the new model will use the Apple iTunes system which proved people will pay for reliable music downloads, now they people will pay for a personalized magazine experience.
Current thought for the economics include subscriptions priced at $1.99 to including one magazine title and one channel; each additional title or channel $0.99. Single articles outside of reader-selected titles or channels will be $0.15 per basic article, and $0.25 per cover article (determined by the publisher).

Worldcolor and Macmillan Partner Up

Worldcolor announced it signed one of the largest book printing agreements in North America with a multi-year agreement with Macmillan. The agreement is for Woldrcolor to print approximately 800 million major trade bestsellers, textbooks and mass market (paperback) books. Also included in the agreement are related warehousing and distribution services. Some of the Macmillan names in book publishing include St. Martin's Press, Farrar Straus & Giroux, Henry Holt, Tor, Forge, Bedford/St. Martin's, and W.H. Freeman and Worth Publishers

Meredith Posts Positive Results

Excerpts from Meredith release-
Meredith’s national media group reported $39 million in operating profit, a 14 percent increase of the prior-year period, the company said. Revenues dropped, though, from $294 million during the fiscal 2009 first quarter compared to $272 this year. The group’s operating expenses declined 10 percent to $233 million, including a 9 percent drop in paper prices.
According to Meredith president and CEO Stephen M. Lacy, national media advertising revenues are “trending in the right direction, and we continue to outperform our major peers and gain share.” Meredith said its share of overall magazine industry ad revenues increased to 12.2 percent during the fiscal first quarter, compared to 8.7 percent this time last year.
Eleven of Meredith's 14 PIB-tracked titles increased share of advertising revenues during the third quarter, the company said.

Stora Enso Boosts Largest and Fastest SC Machine

Stora Enso’s Kvarnsveden paper mill in Sweden houses PM #12, which is the largest paper machine producing supercalendered paper like newsprint and uncoated magazine paper, with capacity of 420,000 tons. PM #12 set speed records, reaching 1,929 meters/min increasing productivity and capacity.

Newsday to Charge for Online News

Coy Paper recently heard that Newsweek has decided start to charge a fee for access to the news on their website. This new model will make the paper the biggest general-interest daily to charge for access to its digital information. The service will be free to those who currently subscribe to the printed edition - or pay $5.00 per week.

West Coast ‘Green’ Mill Closes

Freshwater Tissue, California's last pulp mill and the only chlorine-free/dioxin-free mill in the USA, plans to permanently close. The mill has struggled since the mid 1990's to compete with foreign competition. The owners were planning on building a tissue mill as well. This west coast mill was a model of responsible and environmentally sound American manufacturing, but failed to attract both federal assistance nor private investors.

New York Times and Gannet Report Revenue Down

Like so many other national newspapers, the New York Times continues to reduce costs (estimate 2009 reduction of $475Million) due to declining revenue (down 16.9% from last year).
Advertising continues to struggle
-Classified down 38.3% (automotive,-32.1%; real estate, -44.1%; and help wanted,-52.5%)
-Retail advertising down 25.1%
-Circulation revenue actually increased 6.7% last quarter (but, both the NYT and Globe introduced price increases)
Meanwhile Gannett Company posted a revenue decrease of 53% in the third quarter. A few comments-
-Print newspaper advertising down 31.2%; revenue fell 28.4%
-Online advertising declined 18.5%
-Classified down (automotive, -35% ;real estate, -37% ; employment, -56%)

Paper Wins Another Battle

The San Jose, California City Council joined several other city in their fight against plastic bags. The group voted to make the city the largest in the nation to ban most plastic and non recycled paper shopping bags. This will take effect until 2011, war on plastic bags continues! The council reported that it would allow paper bags made with a minimum of 40 percent recycled materials.

Corner Brook Mill Starts up

The Corner Brook Pulp and Paper mill will start up. It was down since October 12.

Update on Containerboard Market

International Paper announced 1.4Million tons (4% of the market ) to be removed from their capacity (still no word from Smurfit). This will boost operating rates into the mid 90s and the producers are hopeful that pricing will improve. The real improvement will come when the economy improves and end users begin to buy things that go into boxes!
Current pricing (although there are discounts available)-
-42lbs Linerboard $525-535
-42lbs Unbleached kraft linerboard $440-460/ton

Update on Uncoated Free Sheet

The current curtailment of 800,000 tons by International Paper and Domtar, higher pulp prices, and lower inventories, as well as a 'very' slight increase in demand have all assisted the producers in achieving a price increase. While business papers (cutsize) pricing remains at approximately $1010-$1060/ton; the uncoated offset - 50lbs witnessed an increase of $35-40/to to $845-865.
Shipments through September are still down 13.5% from 9/08. Envelope producers just announced a price increase for November of $40/ton.
One area of concern is the new Portucel uncoated freesheet machine in Portugal. The 500,000TPA machine has started and 30% of the production might hit the USA.

Regional and Town Newspapers Surviving Well

As Coy Paper has reported in recent past releases that the big daily newspapers are losing circulation and advertising revenue. The New York Times, today, published an article outlining decreases in circulation for the countries national and large metropolitan papers; confirming over a 10% drop this year. However, the story is not so grim for community and small town newspapers. Many of the small papers actually grew. Although the internet has cannibalized much of this media, the small town papers are very focused on local issues, local events, nearby movies and restaurants, etc. These writers live, eat, and ‘play’ in the community.

Packaging Segment by Shipments

Total North American packaging industry shipped $79.7Billion worth of products in 2008
Folding Carton $10.9Billin
Tag and Label $15.0Billion
Corrugated $25.8Billion
Flexible Packaging 28.0Billion

International Paper Announces more Equipment Curtailment

International Paper will curtail 2.1Million tons of capacity. The company, the world's biggest supplier of containerboard, will shutter 1.4Million tons of containerboard (note, this is 12% of the mill's capacity and 4% of the USA capacity). Regarding the uncoated shutdown, International Paper will close 600,000 tons of capacity which is 19% of the mill's capacity. They are the second largest producer of uncoated paper. IP also reported to curtail 140,000 tons of bleached coated board which is 7% of their capacity.

Until the markets improve, the mills effected by this announcement include, plants in Albany, Ore., Pineville, La., Franklin, Va., and the Valliant, Okla., mill.

Following these permanent shutdowns, IP will have about 10 million tons of North American containerboard capacity, 2.6 million tons of North American uncoated freesheet production capacity and 1.7 million tons of North American coated paperboard capacity.

This should significantly assist the mill in correct the excess supply and poor demand.

Poor Advertising Causes Fortune to make Changes

Fortune Magazine recently announced it will publish 25% fewer issues, which translates into 18 issues versus the current 25. Fortune lost 35% of their advertising pages this year. The publisher will restructure the organization, 'beef up' and perhaps charge for content on the website, and add editorial pages to the magazine in an effort to generate additional revenue.

Pulp Inventories Continue Downward Trend

World pulp inventories were reported to be 26 days in September - down substantially from 44 days in September of 2008. As released in earlier Coy Paper articles, pulp producers curtailed production in the first half of this year because of limited demand, but, today, China continues to purchase large shipments. Therefore, the second half of 2009 appears to witness strong shipments. Worldwide shipments increased nearly 11% in September (vs September of 2008) to 3.5Million metric tons; meanwhile, North American market pulp producers shipped 628,000 market pulp tons, down 3% (vs September 2008). Note, shipments to China doubled to 638,000 metric tons.

This is National Forest Week

In 1960, Congress, in an effort to recognize the forest products industry, announced October 18-24 as National Forest Products week. Our industry makes up 6% of of the GNP manufacturing sector. The paper industry is included in the top 10 manufacturing employers. The industry now estimates that 57% of all the paper consumed is recycled.

Direct Mail Still Surviving

The DMA just reported that direct mail advertising is enjoying a larger share of total advertising dollars. The forecast for 2009YE is for Direct Mail to grow to 54% of total (although the total pie is down). DMA estimates total advertising will be down 11% to $150Billion for 2009. They forecast a steady spend for the end of 2009 and a slight rise of 2% for 2010.

Playboy Reduces Advertising Fees

Playboy, like the majority of other magazines, has suffered with depressed advertising demand and revenue. The publisher just announced they will reduce its advertising rate base by 38% in an effort to stimulate demand. Will other magazines follow?

Domtar Reduces Paper Capacity and Adds to Pulp Production

Domtar will shut down its Plymonth, NC paper making operations and transition the equipment to Fluff Pulp. The company will invest almost $75million to accomplish this and effectively increase capacity of their Fluff Pulp by three times current output to 444,000TPA. This project will be completed by 4Q2010.
After Domtar ceases to produce paper in Plymonth, they will have reduced capacity of uncoated business papers by 200,000TPA.

More on Pulp Market

Coy Paper continues to be surprised at the current strength for market pulp. The price increases all seem to be accepted, and the deep discounts are drying up. The strong demand from China along with low mill inventories and curtailed capacity have all assisted with the tightening of supply. NBSK will soon be up another $30/MT to $800/MT; SBSK also up $30 to $750/mt; BEK to $700/mt; HBSK to $690/mt; and SBHK to $670/mt.
With new list prices at this level, one might assume some of the curtailed pulp producing equipment might be re engaged!

Postmaster General Reports no Increases for 2010

Postmaster General Jack Potter recently confirmed that the USPost Office would not increase postal rates for market dominant products in 2010. This includes First-Class Mail, Standard Mail, periodicals and single-piece Parcel Post. Changes in pricing for other products such as Priority Mail, Express Mail, Parcel Select and most international products, These USPS products are still under consideration.
This should assist the magazine, Catalogue, and direct mail vendors.

Newpage Confirms more Down Time

Consistent with our earlier Coy Paper release, NewPage will take 160,000 tons of market related downtime in the forth quarter. The #63 coated paper machine in Whiting, WI will be shuttered 'indefinitely' and #10 in Rumford. ME will be curtailed until market demand and production can be better balanced. NewPage, along with other USA coated paper producers have combined efforts with United Steelworkers to file an anti dumping duty case against China and Indonesia in violation of international trade rules.

Conde Nast Evaluates more Publications

Conte Nast’s two golf publications were the most recent causalities for the company and the publication industry. Golf Digest’s advertising pages are down 21% and Golf World is down 24% causing the company to reduce staff for both magazines to cut costs.

AbitibiBowater Starts up Paper Machine

AbitibiBowater restarted its #6 paper machine in Fort Frances, Ontario and will keep it operational through mid November to meet orders. As reported in earlier Coy Paper releases, it has been down since early March.

China's Yueyang Paper Starts Paper Machine

Yueyang started trial runs on the new #9 uncoated paper machine in Yueyang City, Hunan Province. Coy Paper has reported on this expansion with a forecast to have a capacity of 200,000 TPA.

Fewer Magazines Folding in 2009

By: Vanessa Voltolina
Once again, the number of magazine closings has outpaced the number of titles being launched, according to the latest report from MediaFinder. But when comparing the number of titles (383) folded through the third quarter of 2009 to the same time period in 2008 and 2007, the pace is significantly less.
According to MediaFinder's most up-to-date numbers, 643 magazines ceased publication in 2007, and a total of 613 magazines closed in 2008. Right now, that means we’re 230 titles off from last year’s total. So unless there’s a dramatic push in closings through the fourth quarter, it looks like the industry may be looking at fewer magazine closings from the past two years.
Of the 259 titles to launch so far in 2009, the report showed that publishers have pulled the plug on 104 more magazines since the first half this year, when 279 folded publications were counted. During the third quarter, 72 titles launched while 104 magazines closed, including the high-profile closings of publishing giant Condé Nast's four titles—Gourmet, Cookie, Modern Bride and Elegant Bride. Other titles to vanish in ’09 included Meredith’s Country Home, Hallmark, American Express Publishing’s Travel & Leisure Golf, Time Inc.’s Southern Accents and Rodale’s Best Life.
Of the launches in 2009, the regional category topped the list with 15, but also experienced the most folded titles (31), including Tampa Bay Living. Both business and lifestyle categories also declined, folding 14 and 13 titles each, respectively.
The food (14), health & fitness (13), and home (13) categories proved to be popular for launches this year.
B-to-b publications accounted for 75 of the new title launches, 130 of the shuttered magazines, and 24 of the magazines that ceased print editions over the past nine months, the report said.

A few thoughts on Paper

Most of the paper companies have attempted (some successfully) announcing and successfully implementing price increases or at least transaction prices (that is reduction of deep discounts). Although pulp prices continue to increase, many of the other raw materials have been steady such as labor costs, transportation and energy.
Creating demand continues to be the biggest challenge and Coy Paper safety predicts more capacity rationalization - both shuttering equipment and short term production curtailment. Beyond stimulating demand, prices will remain under pressure and the end to the infamous 'black liquor ' credit are large concerns.

New York TImes will not Sell Boston Globe

The New York Times Company has decided not to sell The Boston Globe indicating that it did not think the bids it received were high enough to merit a sale.
The NY Times management had been considering shuttering The Globe because of heavy losses ($85 million estimated for 2009). But after deep cost cuts, some achieved in a bitter showdown with labor, the paper’s finances improved.
Two bidding groups reportedly had made preliminary offers of about $35 million cash and the assumption of pension obligations

Magazines find Success with Niche Publications

The magazine publishers are finding that special issues are attracting the advertising dollars. This follows the same logic as to why advertisers pay premiums for the Oscars or Super Bowl, special issues are seen by more people who are more engaged and it creates a lot more buzz than regular issues. Publishers such as ESPN’s Body Issue was up 35%; Time’s ‘Man of the Year’ and People Magazine run several special issues a year, they report 20% more advertising dollars.

NewPage Shuts Down Another machine

NewPage will shutter #63 paper machine in Whiting, WI. The machine produced 160,000 tons of coated paper. Customers will be supplied for coated groundwood publication papers from Biron, WI and Rumford, ME, where capabilities have been expanded.

MeadWestvaco to Sell Specialty Paper Mills

Onyx Specialty Papers agreed to the purchase of MeadWestvaco's South Lee, MA complex. The facility produced laminates and many other special industrial papers. Onyx was formed by the plant’s current general manager, Patricia Begrowicz, and vice president of Sales and Business Development, Chris Mathews. The deal is expected to be completed this year.

Business Week Sold

Looks like Bloomberg will purchase BusinessWeek.

Market Related Shutdown at Corner Brook

Corner Brook Pulp and Paper in western Newfoundland will take the mill down for two weeks.
The company has been effected by the poor demand resulting from unfavorable market conditions, the loss of some orders, the high Canadian dollar, and the low price of newsprint.

Containerboard still down

The major producers of containerboard grades continued to offer an additional discount price of $10-20/ ton for September shipments in an effort to stimulate demand. Prices have been sliding steadily since May. Short of the economy improving, allowing for folks to start buying products that 'go into boxes', - many look for the two market leaders, International Paper and Smurfit, to shutter capacity to balance the excessive supply.

Magazines need to Think Outside the Box

MediaWeek recently published an article on the depressed advertising revenue for magazines. They stated the obvious, that is, no one needs reminding that 2009 was a horrible year for print. Overall, the industry was headed to shed nearly twenty percent of its advertising pages, although some are seeing their pages plummet by as much as 50 percent. MediaWeek, like many others, believe pages are unlikely to return to levels titles enjoyed in the past. To stay afloat, magazines are aggressively seeking new initiatives of growing revenue outside the traditional ad-based model. Fewer advertising pages generally lead to fewer editorial pages which yields less paper demanded; this is especially bad for coated groundwood publication grades.

Sun Times to now be Sold

The bankruptcy court approved the sale of the Sun-Times Media Group to STMG Holdings LLC, led by James Tyree.

Kruger Elects to keep one Machine Running

Coy Paper had reported that Kruger was to shutter two coated publication paper machines; however, management just announced they will continue one of two coated paper lines at Trois-Rivieres. Annual production will shrink from 130,000 to 75,000 metric tons. The remaining paper machine and the pulp plant will shut down indefinitely later this month.

European Survey Reports Paper Shipments Down

As an update to an earlier Coy Paper release on current news of the Pulp and Paper Industry, The Association of European Fine Paper Manufacturers, CEPIFINE, reported on August uncoated and coated woodfree papers and the news reflected a decline in shipments. The coated woodfree shipments in August fell nearly 21% to 576,000 metric tons. On the uncoated woodfree grades, these deliveries declined 20% to 411,000 metric tons.

Pulp and Coated Publication Up, Containerboard Down

As Coy Paper reported earlier, the price of pulp continues to increase and all the majors are standing firm on their price increases and capacity slowdowns. Also, discounts are slowly being reduced.
Recently, the producers of groundwood containing coated publication papers are working with end users toward a reduction in discounts by as much as $60-$80/ton (must feel good after witnessing a decreased price level nearly every month so far in 2009). Demand increased better than 15% in September (vs. August) and the paper market for these grades are ‘only’ down 8% vs. this time last year.
Meanwhile, containerboard demand still remains somewhat weak and pricing remains under pressure. The real key in near term is will the big producers (International Paper and Smurfit) reduce capacity to control supply.

Another Publisher Files for Chapter 11

Questex, who publishes 23 trade publications as well as 150 digital publications filed for bankruptcy protection

Printing Shipments Continue Downward Trend

Commercial printers reported on their August shipments and commented they continue to trend downward. The August shipments dropped to $7.3Billion, down 11.5% or $950 million, the steepest dollar decline so far in 2009 (vs. last year).

Conde Nast closes Four Publications

Conde Nast announced that they would close four magazines: Gourmet, Cookie, Elegant Bride and Modern Bride because the advertising pages dropped significantly, The company reported that Gourmet was down 46%, Cookie’s down 19.5%, Elegant Bride down 32.5% and Modern Bride down 21.5%. Remaining Brides magazine will increase frequency to monthly and Bon Appétit will continue. Condé Nast is keeping alive Bon Appétit, an in-house rival of Gourmet.
Gourmet's circulation is 950,000 and Bon Appétit's is 1,300,000.

Most Recent Pulp Price Increase...Done Deal

Pulp inventories continue to be low, China's appetite for pulp is on the increase, and supply is in balance (with several producers shuttering equipment) - the October pulp increase of $30/MT for HBSK and SBSK is being being paid.

Worldcolor to End Production at Olive Branch Plant

Worldcolor (previously called Quebecor World) will stop production at their Olive Branch, MS printing facility by end of this year , 2009. Two other divisions will take over the production upon closure.

Flexible Packaging Demand to Increase

Excerpts from Converting Magazine
World demand for converted flexible packaging is forecast to increase 3.5 % annually to over 19 million metric tons in 2013. Factors contributing to this rising demand will include growth in food and beverage production, which represents the largest market by far. In addition, cost, performance and source reduction advantages, will continue to favor flexible packaging products over their rigid counterparts.
Gains will be limited by the mature state of the packaging industry in developed areas such as the US, Western Europe and Japan, where the main markets for flexible packaging but are well-established.
The fastest increases will occur in the world's developing regions. Asia, Latin America, Eastern Europe and the Africa/Mideast region will all outpace the global average.
Some of the best gains are expected in China, which has surpassed Japan to become the world's second largest converted flexible packaging market (behind the US); and India, which will benefit from strong growth in domestic output and consumer product markets. The fastest world growth (5.2%/year) is forecast for the Asia - Pacific region. Rapid gains are also expected in Russia and Indonesia, which will benefit from greater investment in state-of-the-art manufacturing equipment, resulting in improved product quality.
Plastic films, which account for almost three-quarters of global converted flexible packaging material demand, will continue to make inroads at the expense of paper and aluminum foil.

Ahlstrom Joins in with Price Increases

Ahlstrom is beginning to inform customers about price increases on all of its specialty paper grades, a result of rising costs for raw material and energy.
Ahlstrom's Specialty Papers segment has production sites in Brazil (Jacarei), France (Bousbecque, La Gere, Pont-Audemer, Rottersac, Saint-Severin and Stenay), Germany (Osnabrück and Altenkirchen), Finland (Kauttua), Italy (Turin) and USA (West Carrollton).

Apple to Introduce Tablet ... it will Create a Challenge to Publications

Apple is aiming to redefine print using the Apple Tablet – just as they did with the computer, cel phone and MP3. The Apple Computer device is expected to be ready for sale in January. If the Tablet becomes popular for digital magazines, publishers will be correct in fearing a faster decline in printed material.

USA Paper Shipments Continue to Fall

From a AF&PA Report -
A new report by the American Forest & Paper Association presents final data for the U.S. paper and paperboard industry for 2008 and shows total production of these products declined 4.9% to 88.4 million tons, the lowest production amount in 15 years.
“These results follow a modest 0.8% decline in 2007, and reflect the severity of the recession in 2008 on the paper and paperboard industry in the United States,” said AF&PA Chief Economist Dr. Stanley Lancey.
The report shows the peak year for paper and paperboard production in the United States was 1999 when production totaled 98.6 million tons.
Ironically, worldwide economic forces suppressed imports to and boosted exports from the U.S. during 2008, according to Dr. Lancey. The report shows imports of paper and paperboard declined 9.5% in 2008 while exports increased 6.1% to an all-time high of 15.5 million tons.

Europe Reports on Downward Paper Demand

Report from CEPIPRINT
(tonnage figures are in metric)
The Association of European Publication Paper Products, reported a decline across all European paper in demand and shipments in August.
• Coated Mechanical demand dropped 16.5% to 527,000 tons, shipments down 18% to 635,000 tons. Volume to US/Australia down, with growth to Japan.
• SC-Magazine demand dropped 10% to 300,000 tons, shipments down 16.5% to 346,000 tons. Exports down 43% to 46,000 tons, due to US/Australia/Brazil.
• Uncoated mechanical demand fell 18% to 150,000 tons, shipments down by 22% to 183,000 tons.

Advertisings Spending Still on the Decline

Spending on advertising across 27 countries dropped nearly 6% in the second quarter, (note; less than 1Q09 drop of 8%).
Some highlights-
Asia spending +2.2%
North America down 15.9%
Europe down 9.1%.
Marketers in automobile and financial services cut back most, while retailers, consumer product and health care increased slightly.

Nielson Online Reports top Sites for News

Each month Nielson reports on the top sites, by unique visitors, for learning about current events. Note, only three newspaper websites hit the top ten list – NY Times, Tribune, and Gannett.
August results-
Yahoo! News -- 43,469,000 -- 7%
CNN Digital Network -- 38,024,000 -- (-2%)
MSNBC Digital Network -- 36,450,000 -- (-30%)
AOL News -- 26,309,000 -- 14%
NYTimes.com -- 17,183,000 -- (-13%)
Fox News Digital Network -- 16,999,000 --- 22%
Tribune Newspapers -- 15,801,000 -- (-10%)
ABCNEWS Digital Network -- 13,873,000 -- 4%
Google News -- 13,442,000 -- 11%
Gannett Newspapers/Newspaper Division -- 12,981,000 -- (-10%)

Are Printed Catalogs a Goner?

Most of the successful catalogers now compliment their respective printed publications with an on line e-ecommerce website. In today’s challenging economy, with distribution and printing on the rise, many are now focusing on the electronic editions. Websites allow for efficient speed, accessibility and overall ease over the printed catalog. Biggest benefit with online catalog is the large audience capability to expose potential end users. The web allows for timely data and updates on both current product offerings and new items. The online catalog also provides side-by-side comparisons and 24/7 satisfaction.

Top Paper Producers

Pulp and Paper International just reported on the top producers for 2008. The list illustrates some changes in that several mills merged or shuttered equipment. International Paper remains at #1, but two Chinese names entered the list, Shandong Chenming and Nine Dragons. Also companies such as Koch (GP), Kruger, White Birch, Asia Pulp and Paper, and APRIL did not make this list. Check Coy Paper's web site on Industry Resources Tab for more details.
Top Producing Areas tons per year (% world)
North America – 70,020,000tons paper (35%) / 13,921,000 mkt pulp (37.4%)
Europe – 70,480,000tons paper (35.4%) / 8,679,000 mkt pulp (23.3%)
Asia – 48,175tons paper (24.2%) / 1,884,000 mkt pulp (5.1%)

Top 10 Producers /2008 sales for paper and pulp
International Paper $24,782,000
Procter and Gamble $13,898,000
Stora Enso $13,450,000
Svenska Cellulosa (SCA) $13,427,000
UPM $13,043,000
Oji $11,084,100
Smurfit $10.335,500
Kimberly-Clark $9,992,000
Nippon $9,983,400
Mondi $9,284,300

Top 5 Tonnage producers (000's)
International Paper 17,128 tons
Stora Enso 11,746
UPM 10,641
AbitibiBowater 7,589,000
Oji 7,381

RISI Casts Shadow on Future of Paper Demands

John Maine of RISI advised that the decrease in shipments of 15 million tons of fine paper between 2007 and 2009 may never return because of all the major changes in electronic substitution and imports to North America and Western Europe. Worldwide there was a 3% drop in 2008 and 11% decline in 2009. A mild recovery is expected over the next year, but not to pre 2007 levels. Coy Paper news releases continue to report on China and India demand maintaining a growth of 3-4% with 4 million tons of new capacity coming on-line in China, mostly coated freesheet.