Gannett Shuts Down Plant

Gannett Media is closing a printing and production plant by September in Wisconsin. The plant currently prints the Fond du Lac Reporter. Production of that paper will be shifted to Gannett's Appleton, WI, facility.

NY Times Reports Profit

After all the depressed news we report on the newspaper market, the New York Times reported a profit of $39.1million for the quarter (up from $21.1 million last year - and up from a loss of nearly $75million 1Q09). Although advertising revenue continues to trend down, the company has been successful in aggressive cost cutting. The company reported a 31.9% decline in ad dollars last quarter, while circulation rose 1.5% (due to increase in price). One important note, even the NYT internet ad dollars fell last quarter (down 4.3%).

Coy Paper now on Twitter

If you enjoy reading these current releases, Coy Paper Company LLC in now updating the company's Twitter account daily with all the current trends on the Pulp and Paper Industry. You may wish to follow the very latest at http://twitter.com/CoyPaper.

Stora Enso Announcing it will Close Mills

Stora Enso, largest papermaker in Europe, will stop production at unprofitable mills as demand and pricing for paper remains weak. In a related announcement, UPM-Kymmene Europe’s second- largest papermaker, is also reducing capacity in Finland for the same reasons.

Advertising Forecast to Fall for September Publications

September issue magazine ad pages totals are beginning to be revealed. Most numbers are down versus September of 2008.
Conde Nast ad pages in W declined 53% Allure fell by 52%, Self by 51%, Glamour by 42%, Vogue by 37%, Details by 35%, GQ by 32% and Teen Vogue by 32%.
Hachette Filipacchi announced Elle’s ad pages down 21%.
Hearst reported Harper’s Bazaar advertising pages fell 23-26% and Cosmopolitan 18%.
Time Inc.’s Essence ad pages decreased by 16%.

Another Large Coated Woodfree Paper Machine for Asia

Moorim Paper in Ulsan, South Korea ordered a 430,000-450,000 ton per year coated woodfree paper machine. The unit will be supplied by Voith Paper and is scheduled to start in June of 2011. Half of the production will be sold domestically and half exported to the U.S., Europe and to other countries in Asia.
Just last week, Shandong Huatai ordered a 500,000TPA coated and uncoated woodfree machine, which the company plans to install in Shandong, China and start in the first quarter of 2011.

Pulp Prices Increase

Tembec announced to all its customers that they will be paying an additional $30/ton ($730/ton) for its Northern Bleached Softwood pulp. This is effective immediately. The increase includes exports. Many of Tembec's competitors are forecast to follow this increase.

Canadian Printer Exists Bankruptcy

After one year operating under Chapter 11, Quebecor World announced it will exit bankruptcy protection. The company secured $800million in financing. The new name of the printer will be World Color Press.

2009 Mid-Year Economic Report for Tag & Label Industry

notes from a report by Jack Kenny
Label & Narrow Width Association staff conducted a survey, converters reported a mixed bag of results. While most commented on sales declines as deep as 30 percent a few boosted increases as high as 50 percent. Profits were down for most, but up for others. Printers vented strongly against price increases by material's suppliers. The majority of them said they were unable to pass along those increases to customers, instead focusing on internal changes to reduce operating costs.
Yet the companies that buy labels still must buy labels, and they have been keeping the industry pumping along. Competition, by all accounts, is more fierce than ever. Clearly, converters directly tied to industries such as the automobile market continue to be hurt the most.

Containerboard Market sees Some Hopeful signs

Deutsche Bank reported stabilized pricing and recovering volume trends
prices have dropped $70-80/ton off last autumn's cyclical peak. However, prices were reported stable in June and appear stable again in July. Moreover, most industry players remain reasonably profitable at current price levels, despite a sharp drop in volumes. Industry consolidation, a proactive approach in managing supply & avoiding inventory overhang, and a weak US Dollar have all played a role in this performance. Additionally, domestic and export volume trends are recovering. June box numbers represented a first real sign of domestic volumes starting to improve.

Magazine Mergers Slow Down

There were only 129 media transactions reported for the first quarter of 2009, down 36 percent from the first quarter of 2008; values, meanwhile, plummeted 91 percent to a combined $1.3 billion.
The second quarter did not fare much better and most transactions were a result of distressed situations. Market valuations have been under pressure due to the lack of debt capital and a general perception of the M&A market as being a ‘buyer’s market’. The largest issue facing magazine M&A is the lack of senior bank financing.

Cox Enterprise Sells Three Newspapers

Cox Enterprises has sold three of its papers in Texas and Colorado. The Waco Tribune-Herald went to the Robinson Media Co. The Daily Sentinel and The Nickel went to Grand Junction Media (owned by Seaton Publishing). Cox is still seeking buyers for its newspapers in North Carolina and Texas including the Austin American-Statesman. Review other releases by Coy Paper for additional market information on the News Paper industry.

Fraser Closing Pulp Mill

Fraser will close its pulp mill in Edmundston, New Brunswick. The company must now buy pulp for its 475,0000 ton per year uncoated freesheet and mechanical specialty paper mill in Madawaska, Maine. Fraser filed for bankruptcy on June 18 as reported by Coy Paper earlier..

Forecast for Printing Industry

The forecast is for print advertising to fall 22.8 percent to $9.8 billion between 2008 and 2010 but will rise 14.3 percent to $11.2 billion by 2013, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers. However, circulation spending will continue to fall to $8.4 billion in 2013, down from $9.7 billion in 2008.
But a number of individual segments, including b-to-b publishing (-3.3 percent) and consumer magazine publishing (-1.7 percent) are expected to decline.
The current economic slowdown has acceleration digital migration. The report went on to comment on digital spending continuing to be the industry’s main source of growth, with revenues accounting for 25 percent of total sales in 2013—up from 17 percent in 2008.

Obama administration Reviewing Tax Credits

The Obama administration continues to review the enormous tax credits the pulp and paper industry is enjoying. The new found money (which is badly needed) was discovered when executives in the industry learned that by adding diesel fuel to the black liquor already recovered and reused in the paper making process – the industry is entitled to the alternative fuel tax credit.

RISI names top 50 Paper Executives

The annual RISI ‘power’ list of paper executives was recently published. Many from Asia make the list.
Top 10 include
1 Jose Luciano Penido / Votorantim Celulose e Papel (VCP)
2 Chen Hongguo / Shandong Chenming Paper
3 John Faraci / International Paper
4 A J Devanesan / ARIL
5 Jose Honorio / Portucel Soporcel
6 Dr Wolfgang Palm / Palm
7 RR Verderah / BILT
8 Teguh Ganda Wijaya / APP
9 Duncan Pollard / WWF
10 Cheung Yan / Nine Dragons Paper
Notable mention at #50 was the Christian Church – the bible is the best selling book of all time. An estimated 100 million copies are sold every year.

June Figures Out for Paper Industry

The American Forest & Paper Association reported early estimates for June paper shipments in the U.S. as follows: coated mechanical shipments fell 17.7% in June, as compared to June 2008, and declined 33.5% year-to-date, as compared to the same period last year. Coated freesheet (woodfree) shipments were down 23.9% in June and 29.3% year-to-date. Uncoated mechanical shipments decreased 30.3% for the month, 29.7% year-to-date. Uncoated freesheet (woodfree) shipments dropped 16.7% in June and 15.6% year-to-date.

CEPIFINE Reports Decline in May Woodfree Paper Shipments

report from CEPIFINE
The Association of European Fine Paper Manufacturers announced a 24.3% decrease in European coated woodfree paper shipments in May, as compared to the same month in 2008. Year-to-date shipments fell 26.6%. Exports declined 43.1% in May, 46.8% year-to-date. CEPIFINE reported uncoated woodfree paper shipments were down 16.1% in May, 17.4% year-to-date. Exports, however, were up 3.5% for the month, but fell 15.8% year-to-date.

Magna Forecasts 2009 Ad Revenue Decline

Another reference on the advertising revenue for 2009-
Interpublic Group’s Magna Global, the second largest owner of advertising agencies in the U.S., has predicted that ad expenditures will fall 14% in 2009 and not recover until late 2010. (Competitor ZenithOptimedia Group, a division of Publicis Group, forecast a decrease of 10.6% for the U.S. in 2009.) Magazine advertising revenue was projected to decline 18% this year, continuing to fall at a compounded annual basis of 3.3% per year from 2009 through 2014. Magna forecast growth in direct mail, however. Though the sector is predicted to loose 11.2% in 2009, it is seen as increasing 2% annually between 2009 and 2010.

More Bad News for Coated Papers

Shipments and pricing remain depressed for publication coated papers. Most buyers report prices fell $15/cwt in June (note, May also saw $15 decline - April down too). Printers report reduction in orders BUT, also they trimmed of inventory - this should help - but year to date demand is down approximately 35%. The catalog season should help.

Magazine Ad Revenue Falls 21% in First Half

As reported by MediaWeek July 10,2009
Magazine ad revenue tumbled in the first half of 2009 as the recession continued to take its toll on marketing spending, according to new figures from Publishers Information Bureau, a service of Magazine Publishers of America.

Rate-card reported ad revenue declined 21.2 percent to $9 billion on a 27.9 percent decline in pages in the first half, reflecting declines across the 12 categories that make up more than 85 percent of total magazine ad spending.

Categories seeing the sharpest declines were finance (down 48.8 percent), auto (off 47.8 percent) and retail (down 34.2 percent).

The scant good news: within the broader ad categories, there were upticks in ad spending for certain food products; soaps and hair products, which benefited titles with a focus on lifestyle, fitness and celebrities.

McGraw Hill may sell BusinessWeek

The struggling BusinessWeek Magazine is looking for a new owner. This is the last of McGaw Hill’s portfolio of magazines. Recent circulation is slightly under 1million and advertising pages has fallen 37% so far this year. Given the fact the publishing industry is doing poorly – school is out as to who might have the cash to purchase BusinessWeek.

Canadian Government asking Catalyst Paper for Taxes

Catalyst Paper has fallen behind on paying its taxes to four of Canada’s municipalities. The government is demands it must pay its full taxes.

Maine Stronger Paper Producers

Bangor Daily News recently released an interview with Keith Van Scotter, the CEO of Lincoln Paper and Tissue. He commented on the paper industry and specifically which facilities in Maine will survive. His picks included Verso of Jay and Bucksport – producer of supercalender and coated publications papers; SAPPI in Skowhegan and Westbrook – producer of coated free and technical papers; New Page of Rumford – producer of coated papers; and of course his mill Lincoln (in Lincoln)– producer of tissue paper.

Kruger Shuts Down Coated Machines

Kruger will shut down three machines and two coaters at its Trois-Rivieres mill in Quebec. The machines had a capacity of approximately 230,000 TPA of coated publication papers. Newsprint and supercalendered paper production will continue at the mill and Kruger will also keep making approximately 258,000 short tons per year of coated mechanical paper at its Wayagamack mill.

Buyers say no to Newsprint Price Increase

Beyond the struggle for revenue that most newspapers currently battle, purchasing departments site resistance to a price increase for the paper - one of their biggest costs. Most confirm that even though the trend continues for decreased readers and all agree supply from newsprint producers is down - but they have been unsuccessful reducing inventory. That is, demand for newsprint is falling faster than manufactures can curtail production.

International Paper sees Pulp Demand Growth

International Paper Co. Chief Executive Officer John Faraci , stated he expects a “modest” increase in pulp demand this year as Chinese orders make up for declines in most other markets, “Most of the growth is being driven by demand in China,” Faraci said. The growth will be in the “single digit” percentage range, he said.

Will the Newsprint Increase Happen?

AbitibiBowater still not joining others in advancing newsprint price increase - I would assume without AbitibBowater - the August increase is a goner!

Advertising Dollars Remain Depressed

Nielsen’s Global AdView Plus reported that ad expenditures decreased by 7.2% for the first quarter of 2009, as compared to the same period last year. Spain, with a 28.2% drop in ad spending, led the way in making Europe the hardest hit region. Sales in the U.S. fell 12.7%. The Asia Pacific area announced a decrease of only 2.3%. Magazine advertising was down 17.4%, 22.2% in North America, and newspaper ad spending fell 9.1%.

St Mary's Paper Continues Shut Down

We reported earlier this year, St. Mary’s Paper was closing two of three paper machines in their Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario mill in May. These machines remain curtained. The company produces supercalender paper.

Top Print and Online Catalogers

Most catalogers report flat sales for 2008 versus 2007, top print and online catalogers include (account/catalog sales)-
Dell $51,936,000
Thermo Fisher Scientific $10,500,000
IBM $9,076,000
Staples $8,900,000
CDW $8,100,000
Henry Schein $6,400,000
Wesco $6,110,000
United Stationers $4,986,900
OfficeMax $4,310,000
Office Depot $4,145,700

Will Paper Industry Level Off?

After six straight quarters of paper price increases in 2007 and early 2008, we than witnessed aggressive discounts through the first half of 2009. Many now are beginning to think that inventories are low, manufacturers have curtailed production, and the catalog season is about to begin. If the paper companies maintain a policy of balancing supply with demand, ship dates and prices could advance. Perhaps by Spring of 2010?

Report on Paper Industry

Paper Industry Magazine just published a survey on the paper industry and highlights included
Paper and Paperboard capacity has contracted 7.3% since its 2000 peak.
-18 USA mills were permanently closed in 2008; shuttering 27 paper machines – 14 more machines were shut down at other mills
-In 2007, 17 mills and 38 machines were permanently closed.
-Paper and Paperboard are forecasted to decline another 1.8% in 2009

Magazine Closings Outpaced New Launches

Magazine closings outpaced launches in the first half of the year as publishers were squeezed by the advertising recession. A total of 279 folded while only 187 made their debut.

Top Book Publishers

I was doing some research of the Book Publishing Industry, a few notes of interest -
Of the 2600 book publishers in USA, the five biggest command 45% of the market share
15.5% Pearson
9% Houghton Mifflin
9% McGaw-Hill
6% Scholastic
5% Bertelsmann

Major American Book Segments

Major American Book Segments
The major Book Segments by revenue include
71% Trade Book
10% Professional Books
9.5% Religious Books
6% Elementary / High School Books
2.5% College Books
1% University Books

Paper Industry Continues to Recycle

The AF&PA confirmed that in 2008, the paper industry recovered 57.4%, up from 56% in 2007. The trend has been up for years; however, the current recession is allowing for less paper demanded and therefore, less paper will be available. The value of recycled paper has also declined. Note: paper and paperboard capacity in USA has decreased nearly 1% to 96.3million tons. AF&PA forecasts capacity will drop another 1.8% in 2009.

Domtar's Pulp Mill to Restart

Following a seven-week shutdown, Domtar is restarting its 398,000TPAnorthern bleached hardwood market pulp mill in Woodland, ME. All of the Woodland NBHK output for at least the next three months has been sold to China.

China’s Largest Newsprint Producer will Produce Coated

Shandong Huatai Paper, China’s biggest producer of newsprint, has ordered an 800,000 TPA coated woodfree paper machine from Metso Paper. The machine, will be 9.9 meters in width with a design speed of 2,000 meters per minute. A late 2010 start up is planned.

Newsprint Market in Confusion

As reported in our past releases, newsprint prices have fallen around $195/ton or 28% so far this year. Demand has also steadily declined, but, Kruger, Catalyst, Tembec, and White Birch announced a $50/ton increase for August shipments, despite the weak market.
Newsprint demand in North America fell nearly 29% in May – vs. 2008 and 31.7% so far this year vs at this time in 2008. Furthermore, consumption at US dailies fell 26% and paper mills only are operated at 67% of capacity (vs. 94% in May 08).
Note: we continue to report producers continue to take downtime (693, 000tons or 27% of North America quarterly capacity during 2Q2009), the reality is that more permanent closures are
inevitable.

USPS Reports Loss for May

The U.S. Postal Service reported a $677 million net loss for May which yields a year-to-date loss total of $3.4 billion. Also, reported was a 20% drop in overall volume for May and a 13% decline year-to-date. Periodicals volume dropped 13% for the period and 7% year-to-date.

Gannett Reports more Challenges

The Gannett Co. confirmed it will reduce its workforce. The company is preparing to lay off more than 1,000 employees as the largest newspaper publisher's workforce continues to shrink along with its advertising sales. Note, we reported in past that Gannett reduced its workforce 3,600 from 2007 to the end of 2008.

Vibe Magazine Folds

Vibe, a staple of music journalism since 1993 and one of the most influential publications has folded. The company was unable to secure financial backing, or to restructure its debt. Declines in the music industry and in advertising worked against the business. It had been a tough year for Vibe, which faced a steep drop in ad pages and circulation. The magazines circulation base was 600,000 from 800,000. Vibe also had reduced its frequency from monthly to 10 times a year.

Kimberly-Clark Slims Down

The maker of Kleenex tissues, Huggies diapers and many other household items plans to cut 1,600 jobs, of its global work force, as it slims down in the tough economy.
Kimberly Clark does not plan on closing any plants.
Shoppers have cut back on spending because of the recession, high unemployment and the housing downturn. Meanwhile revenue, which had been steadily rising, began to fall late in 2008.

Top Tag and Label Converters

Although the USA tag and label segments fared better than most in the Pulp and Paper industry, with 2008 growth at 2.1% - this was down from forecasted 5%. Many believe this segment will begin to witness consolidation. Top ten converters include-
RR Donnelly
Avery Denison
CCL
WS Packaging
Fort Dearborn
Multi Color
Nashua
York
Spear
MPI Labl

Erving Paper Operates under Chapter 11

The Erving Paper Company, which has a 40,000TPA operation in Massachusetts, continues to produce recycled tissue under Chapter 11. Management sited increased competition, and an underfunded pension plan as reasons for this protection.

More Downtime for Catalyst

Catalyst Paper will extend downtime at its recycled newsprint mill in Arizona by an additional 10 days. Catalyst’s Snowflake mill consumes more than 480,000 tons/yr of recycled paper that would otherwise end up in landfills

Chicago Tribune Makes Changes

The Chicago Tribune Magazine will cease as a weekly publication after July 28, as part of a series of changes to the Sunday paper to cut costs.
In a note to readers, Tribune editor Gerould W. Kern said the magazine will "appear as a series of themed magazines throughout the year—roughly once a month beginning in September."
Kern said declining advertising and high cost made weekly publication "unsustainable."

International Paper certifies most Plants with FSC

International Paper announced the expansion of its Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) Chain-of-Custody certification to include a majority of its U.S. pulp and paper mills. The company will be the largest FSC manufacturing platform across the globe..
With its expansion, International Paper's FSC Chain-of-Custody certification worldwide includes: three Coated Paperboard mills and its six converting facilities; four Pulp operations; six Industrial Packaging mills; seven Printing Papers mills and its sheeting operations; and a number of Foodservice and Shorewood manufacturing facilities.

Less Discounting for Uncoated Free Sheet

Although Coy Paper Company continues to witness price corrosion for Uncosted Free, the price declines appear to be leveling off. So far, for June, we only hear $5-10/ton discount from May. This results in 50lbs roll price $810-855, with spot pricing slightly below $800/ton,. Cutsize office paper transacts $120-1080/ton (spot below $1000). The two major producers of this grade, International Paper and Domtar, continue to take down time. May demand was down nearly 15% from May of 2008.

Containerboard Prices Remain Stable

Recent reports on market pricing for Containerboard point to staple pricing of approximately $540/ton for June shipments. The major manufacturers are closely monitoring inventory levels (actually down 96,000 tons) and lower production to keep pricing in check. Further, industry analysist Mark Wilde comments, additional permanent closures appear inevitable given the the weak domestic demand and estimate of over 4Million tons of excess capacity. He also reported box shipments declined 10.7% .
Producers continue to take extensive downtime. Coy Paper estimated 1.4Million tons in Q2
(1.7million tons in Q1). Smurfit recently announced 524,000 downtime at its Jacksonville, FL plant.

Tembec Cancels Downtime

Tembec canceled plans to take market related downtime at its Skookumchuck pulp mill in Canada. The mill was to be shutdown for a two-week period beginning June 29. Reversed decision was based on modest improvements in pulp pricing.

Crain’s New York Business Reduces Issues

Crain’s New York Business is reducing its print issues to 46 times this year from 51. They join the other publications on searching for efficient ways to cut costs.

Reader’s Digest Makes more Changes

Reader’s Digest Association will reduce the publication frequency of its magazine to 10 times a year from 12 beginning with the February 2010 issue. It will also reduce its rate base to 5.5 million from 8 million over the next 10 months.

AF&PA Reports on First Quarter

The AFPA released figures showing that the value of pulp and paper produced by its mills in the first quarter was $292.1 million versus $373.2 million in the corresponding period last year – a 22% decline.

Fraser Paper Seeks Bankruptcy Protection

Fraser Papers Inc. announced restructuring for both Canada and the United States. Fraser said weak lumber and pulp markets have led to losses and offset profits in its paper business. The company also cited a pension-funding shortfall as a reason for the Chapter 15 bankruptcy filing. The company's two paper mills in Madawaska, Maine and Gorham, N.H. will continue to operate without disruption, manufacturing specialty paper products for existing customers.

Newspapers looking at New Models

The forecast for printed newspapers continues to be doom and gloom and many publishers are exploring alternative business models. Most now offer the news in an electronic version – for free. This will change. Newspapers are reviewing applications that allow a charge to end users. The companies are also designing personalized emails that forward focused news along with banner ads and RSS feeds for additional fee based programs.

More Newspapers Join Yahoo

Five more newspapers have joined the Yahoo Newspaper Consortium, according to Reuters. The new additions bring the consortium to 814 newspaper members, which Reuters says accounts for 51 percent of all Sunday newspaper circulation.
The Yahoo alliance has been one of the few bright spots for newspapers. A recent estimate by Ad Age found that the two-and-a-half year-old consortium sold $50 million in Yahoo ad inventory, with about 'several million' dollars in sales being added each week."
FYI. 592 newspapers in the consortium rely exclusively on Yahoo's HotJobs for help-wanted ads.

Web Browser's Ranking

Since my other company is Paper.com, I thought I would share recent ranking of web browsers. In order of popularity-
Microsoft – Internet Explorer
Mozilla Firefox
Apple Safari
Google Chrome
Netscape
Opera
Other
AOL

Trends for Paper and Film Converters

PFFC recently released the results from a survey with included converters and suppliers of Flexible Packaging (30% of respondents); Unprinted Paper (24%); Labels, Tapes, Tags (24%); Paperboard Pkg, (14%).
Expectations for 2009
45% believe volume of orders will be down and 53% report order size down
46% forecast receivables will advance
49% predict selling prices will increase; while 55% thought profitability would decrease
35% will spend more on expanding product line into new markets
Only 19% stated an increase over 2007 for CAPEX allocated for new equipment
A whooping 84% believe materials will increase (forecast 8.8% increase)
62% felt plant capacity and backlogs would decline over 2008.

North American Printers Post First Quarter Loss

We reported, in this section, earlier this year on printer's financial results, PPI just released the following:
A composite of seven major commercial printing companies in North America posted a first quarter loss of $30 million, according to a PPI Pulp & Paper Week survey. It was the group’s first quarterly loss in more than five years. Combined sales for the seven firms declined 19% compared with first quarter 2008 and by 15% from the fourth quarter 2008.

Publishers Continue to Reduce Weight of Paper

In an effort to reduce the overall cost of a publication, publishers continue to reduce the size of the piece and the basis weight of the paper. Consultants fear that although these reductions could result in lower mail costs and more economic yield savings – BUT beware of the consequences. Most paper producers will price the lighter weight paper at a greater price. Although there is still a postage savings; further disadvantages include less opacity and rigidity in the lighter weight paper – yielding a ‘cheaper’ looking printed publication. This diminished appearance could tarnish the image of the company and the company’s products and overall branding.
I note, one other important attribute of lowering the weight and size generates less paper consumed, thus, better for the environment. Coy Paper Company can assist with any sourcing challenges for a lighter weight paper.

Canada to Subsidize Paper Mills

The federal government is set to announce a $1-billion package to help Canada's pulp and paper industry by countering a U.S. subsidy for using alternative energy.
The funding will be in the form of grants over a three-year period available to all 71 Canadian pulp and paper mills that make capital improvements to reduce their dependence on traditional energy sources.
The aid is in response to counter the so-called "black liquor'' subsidy to pulp mills in the U.S., which has been estimated at between $6 billion and $8 billion.

Growth in Demand for Labels

Notes from Freedonia Group survey
World demand for labels is projected to expand 4.3 percent per year through 2013 to 49 billion square meters to $105 billion. The pressure sensitive segment (which overtook the wet glue segment in importance at the global level in the late 1990s) will continue to see above-average gains, accounting for almost 55 percent of global label demand by 2013.
More trends: Wet glued products will not fare as well as PS labels, with demand even declining in many developed food and beverage markets. Other favorable outlooks include shrink sleeve, wraparound film and in-mold labels. Through 2013, plastic labels will continue to register much faster gains than paper labels, which are largely used in wet glued applications.

The Asia/Pacific region will expand its share of the world label market from 32 percent in 2008 to 36 percent in 2013. China and India will account for much of this increase, while Japan will see weak growth. The US will see below-average gains through 2013, but remain strong relative to other developed markets. Western Europe will see a noticeable deceleration in its label market growth, with some highly intensive (relative to population) users of labels in the region such as Ireland, Scandinavia and the United Kingdom expected to see outright declines. Latin America, Eastern Europe and the Africa/Mideast region, which combined accounted for less than 20 percent of global label demand in 2008, will all see above-average gains through 2013.

Among the various market segments, the smaller pharmaceutical sector will register particularly strong gains, aided by improving health care in the developing world and an aging population in the developed world. The food and beverage sectors will see weaker gains as a result of market maturity and stagnant population growth in the developed world, combined with the increasing penetration of cans, pouches and other packaging media that utilize printed product descriptions rather than labels. Label products with strong growth will include counterfeit deterrence labels, retail sector RFID tags that allow labels to assume inventory control and management as well as convey information, and tamper-evident labels.

More on Pulp Pricing

Tembec informed customers it would increase the price of northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) pulp by $40/ton to $700/ton effective July 1. Earlier, we reported Canfor Pulp, Northern Pulp Nova Scotia, West Fraser and Domtar announced an NBSK list price hike to $700/ton in North America.
Most buyers now feel North American NBSK prices will actually rise (first time in 11 months) Perhaps ‘real’ June increase felt will be $25/ton to $660/ton, driven by reduced supply from production downtime and closures and continued strong demand from China. Spot USA NBSK prices for big purchases might rise $15/ton to $510-530/ton. Reports suggest that most of the major producers are planning to increase prices again by $30-40/ton for July shipments.

Boston Globe For Sale!

The Boston Globe reports three are interested in acquiring the paper. Announced parties that are in discussions include Stephen Pagliuca, a private equity executive and co-owner of the NBA's Boston Celtics; Jack Connors, cofounder of a Boston advertising firm and chairman of Partners HealthCare; and Stephen Taylor, a former Globe executive whose family sold the paper to the New York Times Co. in 1993 for $1.1 billion.

Growth Still Seen in Food Packaging

If the forecast by The Freedonia Group is right, by 2013, Americans will use a staggering 300 billion food containers each year. The Group predicts that US demand for food containers will grow by 2.5 percent annually over the next five years to a total value of $25 billion versus $22 billion in 2008.
Demand for bags and pouches has grown by a robust 5.9 percent annually, from $6.9 billion a year in 2003 to $9.3 billion last year. Despite an anticipated drawnout economic recovery, the demand growth for bags and pouches is expected to be a steady 3.3 percent annually over the next five years.
He says the proliferation of convenience and single-serving food packaging has been a trend that has been gathering steam. Several factors have made such packaging popular, including smaller average household sizes, the increasing maturity of the US population and rising numbers of dual-income and single-parent households. Coy Paper Company LLC markets many products into the food and be

The Paper Market Continues its Challenges

More reports confirm May shipments on Printing & Writing papers remain weak. Uncoated free sheet down 14.7% (YTD -15.8%), Coated Free sheet decline of 30.4% (YTD - 30.4%), Light-Wt (publication) Coated off 27.5% (YTD -36.5%).

Update on Market Pulp

Notes from Deutsche Bank Conference, Brian McClay
>Spot pricing and demand for market pulp has been increasing for past 60-90 days (formal price increase announced June 1).
>Most of rally caused by increase in Chinese demand (up 60% YTD +2.3million tons - through May). Advanced price also driven by most pulp mills taking down time and mill closures (2Q2009 – 20% idled / 5.4million tons out of market last 12 months).
>Why China up? Buying lower cost imported pulp (vs. domestic); willing to inventory higher level of finished paper; pulp inventory high.
>Forecast is for additional 2million tons of pulp production curtailed by end of 2009; BUT, new capacity from Brazil (VCP) and Chili (Arauco).
>Conclusion, McClay believes pulp rally will stall out. Watch for seasonal summer depressed demand. China most likely not continue to stock pile. USA and Europe demand remains weak.

Domtar to Restart Maine Pulp Mill

Domtar Corp. said it will reopen its 398,000 ton hardwood pulp mill in Baileyville, Maine, which has been idle since March. Domtar said its decision to reopen the mill was the result of reduced pulp inventory levels and the recent increase in demand and pricing.

Quebecor Rejects New Donnelley Offer

As follow up to our past releases, Quebecor World has turned down R.R. Donnelley’s latest offer of $1.825 billion to acquire the rival printer. Quebecor said it will proceed with its restructuring plan and expects to emerge from bankruptcy by mid-July.

USA Today introduces Digital Program for News

Like other Newspapers, USA Today has witnessed aggressive competition from the web. The newspaper recently announced it is working on a digital reading devise and mobile applications to compliment its paper version. USA Today will charge for this service.

Trucker Rates may Start to Increase

Current overcapacity and aggressive pricing for both truck and inter model freight may start to witness firmer pricing. Diesel fuel continues to advance ( an important cost for truckers) and many truckers are shuttering operations. Experts forecast rate increases in early 2010 and gradually continuing throughout year. The paper industry, such as Coy Paper Company, ships the majority of its products by truck; accordingly, this is an important cost to watch.

More on Pulp Prices

FOEX’s index for northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) pulp jumped by $12.35/ton to $607.05/ton this week as a result of capacity cuts and closures, as well as a weak U.S. dollar and strong shipments to China. In fact, shipments of market pulp to China are up 71% in the first four months of this year.

Printing Companies Post First Quarter Loss

First quarter results for seven major North American commercial printing companies were significantly lower than the previous-year quarter due to reduced advertising and print orders. These companies combined posted a loss of $30.1 million, compared to a profit of $72.9 million in the first-quarter 2008. Quebecor World, which filed for bankruptcy protection in January 2008, reported a loss of $103 million, which greatly affected the first quarter composite. Quarterly sales for the seven firms declined 19% from the first quarter last year to $4.9 billion.

Prices Still Down for Uncoated Papers

Uncoated Freesheet pricing has continued to decrease, but at a declining rate. Recent report by Deutsche Bank reveals 50lb Roll Offset now transacting at $820-865/ton (spot price below $800); Cut size business papers $1025-$1085/ton (spot believed to be below $1000). Market leaders, International Paper and Domtar are suspending production in an effort to control supply (and pricing). Read more on Coy Paper Web Site.

Could Pulp Pricing Really be rising ?

Assisted by marketing related equipment curtailment and hence less pulp flooding the market – AND a realized reduction in inventory – the theoretical price increase for June 1 could have legs. It has been confirmed, markets like China have been experiencing increased prices. More to follow after we confirm North America buyers are actually paying more.

AbitibiBowater Awarded Additional Financing

AbitibiBowater received U.S. bankruptcy court approval for $600 million from Fairfax Financial Holdings to finance operations during its reorganization. AbitibiBowater sought protection in Quebec last month, where a court approved $100 million in debtor-in-possession financing backed by the provincial government.

RRDonnelley Increases Bid for Quebecor World

R.R. Donnelley & Sons Co. has increased its offer to acquire rival printer Quebecor World Inc. to an amount equal to $800 million and cash on the balance sheet at $335 million.

Coy Paper now on Twitter

Coy Paper Company LLC in now updating the Twitter account daily with all the current trends on the Pulp and Paper Industry. You may wish to follow Coy Papers at http://twitter.com/CoyPaper.

Newest IPhone .. .one more Challenge for Newspaper's Survival

Apple announced newest IPhone and many new applications. The new technology will allow the browser to locate the user and deliver local news, also local advertisements. The new applications will also allow the reader (IPhone viewer) to subscribe to exclusive video of local events and interviews. Real threat to the very existence and purpose for a regional newspaper.

RISI reports ''price concessions'' are in play

RISI confirms solid bleached sulfate (SBS) folding carton paperboard grades continue to witness price concessions because of weakened demand. The spot price has been stuck at $995/ton for the past seven months, but prices of SBS board for cartons for large volume is now $100-110/ton cheaper.

Tembec Continues Downtime at Newsprint Mill

The shutdown will be for a minimum of three weeks due to poor market conditions. The curtailed operations at its Pine Falls, Manitoba will mean 11,000 tons of newsprint out of market.

Domtar Achieves FSC Certification

Domtar Corporation announced it has achieved Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) Chain-of-Custody certification at four more of its paper mills. Its coated groundwood mill in Columbus, MS, and uncoated freesheet mills in Hawesville, KY, Kingsport, TN, and Marlboro (Bennettsville), SC are now FSC-certified

Another Magazine to Trim Size

The New York Times Magazine is cutting its size by 9 percent; this will save money due to less paper and less ink. Note, the size will decrease from 9 ½ x 11 ½ to 8 15/16 x 10 7/8” – making it more square. This cost saving move is a result of less advertising revenue. We have reported in past on several other publications trimming the magazine size to save money.

Pulp Prices Actually are on the Rise!

Inventories for worldwide pulp are down – mainly due to stronger than expected China demand and the devalued USA Dollar is helping exports to both Asia and Europe. All the major
producers such as Domtar, Abitibi-Bowater, Sappi, Alberta-Pacific, Sodra, Tembec, Canfor Pulp, and West Fraser have now announced NBSK price hikes for June shipments.

Containerboard prices Down

It's official, the price for 42 lb linerboard and corrugated medium declined $10/ton in May; note, we reported reduction of @$15/ton between March and April. The new $10 reduction nets a total of $70/ton reduction from its recent high or a current market price of $470-490. Large spot orders are known to sell at less. Stay tuned, inventory levels are declining and manufactures are committed to take down time, but still plenty of capacity.

Paper/Forest Products Companies’ Q1 Profits Deteriorate

Report from PPI Weekly
Earnings for 27 publicly traded U.S. paper and forest product companies plunged 96.9% in the first quarter 2009 compared to a year ago, according to PPI Pulp and Paper Week. The decrease was on top of an 87% drop in fourth quarter 2008, versus fourth quarter 2007. Eleven publicly traded Canadian pulp, paper and forest product companies posted a first quarter loss of C $640.8 million. The loss was nearly double the C $385.5 million loss in last year’s first quarter.

Digital Future for Newspaper Industry

Some interesting comments from "Mr. News", himself-
Murdoch restated his position on paid content, noting that people are soon going to have to pay to read newspapers online versus simply downloading for free.
Murdock went on to state, "Instead of an analog product printed on paper, you may get it on a panel which will be mobile, which will receive the whole newspaper over the air, and be updated every hour or two."
He thinks it's two or three years away before digital news is introduced in a big way, and then it will probably take 10 to 15 years for the public to swing over.

One Magazine Cuts Adv Rate Base

Magazines such as New York Magazine will start to promote their remaining readers as more engaged and presumably more valuable to marketers. The magazine will lower its rate base 6 percent to 400,000, while hiking its introductory subscription price 25 percent to $24.97.

RH Donnelley goes for Bankruptcy

RH Donnelley, the publisher of nearly 600 directories, including the yellow pages, files for bankruptcy protection. The company sited losses from operations due to declines in advertising because of economy, new competition from local directories, and the competition from the web.

USA Dollar continues to decline

The United States Dollar continues to be weak against major foreign currencies. This trend will begin to support USA based manufacturers of products such as paper. Export of paper products should improve.

Printers Crying the Blues

Total revenue for most major printers are now back to 2005 levels. The decline in sales was larger than expected due to the number of printers that closed their doors.
Sales revenue, prices, and profitability all suffered because of the poor economy. Some costs also declined, but not enough to support reduced pricing.

Ad Pages Continue their Decline

Advertising pages for business-to-business magazines plunged 31.54% in February and declined 29.70% during the first quarter (down 26.95% in January). Consumer magazines saw ad pages plunge 25.9% during the first quarter, according to the Publishers Information Bureau. Fewer ads means less paper consumed.

Oil Prices Increase

Although demand has not increased significantly, the price for a barrel of oil continues to hover above $60. Note, oil hit a recent low of $35 in March of 2008 (and a high in 2008 as well of over $145). Oil is a large cost factor in the production of paper; accordingly, a price increase in raw materials while finished paper products are offered at a discount, adds more profit pressure to those marginal mills.

Boise adjusts Newsprint Pricing Down

Boise shocked the market with their announcement to reduce pricing for newsprint. In an effort to stimulate demand with mill operating rates currently below 70% (actually closer to 60%) Boise is selling 30lb standard news for $430/MT ($460/MT for 27.7lbs). This represents a drop of $150 for June East Coast deliveries. The world’s largest producer of Newsprint, AbitibiBowater, immediately matched this price. RISI just forecasted that another million tons of capacity would be curtailed in next quarter.

Uncoated Papers Continue to be Sluggish

Demand for May on commodity rolls and cut size business papers remains low and all buyers are price sensitive. Prices eroded $10/Ton to $820- $865 for 50lb rolls. Spot pricing is as low as $800/Ton for large orders.

Paper Council Reports on Paper Shipments

The Pulp and Paper Products Council reported Printing & Writing paper shipments fell 21.1% in April, as compared to the same month in 2008. Coated mechanical shipments decreased 32.8%, coated woodfree declined 30.8%, uncoated mechanical shipments fell 21.3% and uncoated woodfree was down 12.2% SC-A and SC-A+ shipments decreased 26.9% in April, while SC-B and SNC+ shipments increased 13.1%. These figures are consistent with our previous news releases.

Pulp Producers to Raise US Prices

West Fraser and Canfor Pulp have both informed North America customers that they will increase northern bleached softwood Kraft (NBSK) pulp prices to $660/ton effective June 1. The moves follow previous announcements by Domtar and Northern Pulp that they will raise NBSK pulp prices to $680/ton.

NewPage Sends Message to Competitors

Currently, about a third of coated paper equipment is down, or has been turned off at some point, during the first half of 2009. Most of this down time has been at the NewPage facilities. The company has closed five machines and sold nearly 45% less tons in the first quarter. NewPage has given up market share as a result, and is growing frustrated that competitors keep their machines running. NewPage feels USA market has over a million tons of excess capacity. They think mills such as Verso and Kruger should now do their pro rata part (which is more than past curtailment from respective mill).